Greetings from the lastfrom the year’s Politics Desk newsletter, in which we anticipate the key narratives that will influence Washington and beyond in 2025. (See here for a summary of the dynamics that shaped 2024.) Our return date is Friday, January 3.
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5 big storylines that will shape 2025
By Sahil Kapur
Here are five major themes to keep an eye on in the upcoming year, as the new Congress begins work on January 3 and President-elect Donald Trump’s tenure begins on January 20.
1. How will Mike Johnson manage the tiny House majority?
If he succeeds, Mike Johnson’s reelection as House speaker on January 3 might be the easy part. With a razor-thin House majority, he will next have to manage a number of challenging tasks, including a debt limit deadline, another round of government financing on March 14, and one or possibly two significant party-line bills to forward Trump’s agenda on immigration, border security, energy, and tax cuts. It will be a difficult task, especially for a speaker who took over the position abruptly just 14 months ago. The most significant period of Johnson’s career is about to begin. On Monday, he received Trump’s endorsement to continue as speaker.
2. What will define the John Thune era?
John Thune will succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate Republicans’ leader for the first time in eighteen years. Will Thune have a similar or different style of leadership? By thoroughly comprehending his conference and doing as it instructed, McConnell increased his influence. Will Thune reject Trump on what topics, if any, and how?
3. How will Democrats manage Trump 2.0?
Early signs suggest that Democrats, who were stung by their 2024 setbacks, want to approach Trump in a different way than they did during his first term. More attention should be paid to the economic problems that led voters to turn against them, rather than the hysteria around his social media posts and cultural insults. It is noteworthy that Trump’s statement that it would be difficult to reduce supermarket costs prompted some Democrats to criticize him the most after the election. However, it is unclear if Democrats will possess the self-control to remain focused on problems that affect the kitchen table.
4. Which stars will emerge in the new Congress?
For both parties, the congressional class of 2025 will introduce a fresh set of personalities. Currency will be synonymous with being close to Trump’s White House, having the ability to further his agenda, and having the potential to go viral on conservative media, according to Republicans on Capitol Hill. Who will be the spokesperson for the second resistance, according to Democrats? In order to set the stage for passing another tax cut plan for Trump, they spent the final days of 2024 painting Trump as the puppet of billionaires like Elon Musk and calling for an increase in the debt ceiling.
5. Do Trump and his allies pursue retribution?
This month, Trump stated in an interview with Meet the Press that he wanted to turn the page after running on a platform of retaliation against alleged political opponents. I have no desire to return to the past. Success will be the means of retribution, he declared. His behavior, however, conveys a different message. Before becoming office, he had already taken legal action against media organizations such as ABC News and an Iowa pollster. He will have supporters in positions of authority on Capitol Hill, including chairmanships of committees and the ability to subpoena investigations. Will they settle scores for Trump by using their influence?
For now, that’s all from the Politics Desk. For comments, likes, or dislikes, send an email to [email protected].
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