Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, an evening email that provides you with the most recent coverage and commentary from the campaign trail, Capitol Hill, and the White House by the NBC News Politics team.
Steve Kornacki, the national political correspondent, explains how New Jersey might serve as an early litmus test for Donald Trump’s coalition in today’s program. Additionally, senators from both parties are not convinced by Trump’s recent plea for a solution on Dreamers, according to senior national political writer Sahil Kapur.
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A blue state could provide an early test for the Trump coalition
By Steve Kornacki
New Jersey, one of the bluest states in the nation, saw one of Donald Trump’s largest victories this year. After losing to Joe Biden by 16 points in 2020, the next president defeated Harris by 6 points in the Garden State, a double-digit improvement.
Significant gains with Hispanic voters were crucial to Trump’s increased support; this was a nationwide trend that was particularly noticeable in New Jersey, where somewhat more than one in five citizens are Hispanic. Along with strengthening his already strong position in Orthodox Jewish communities, he also made significant progress with Asian American voters and, in certain sections of the state, with Muslim and Arab American voters. These trends are consistent across the nation.
Whether Republicans can sustain and expand this new demographic alliance without Trump himself on the ballot is a key question that comes out of the 2024 election. This sets up the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election as a possible preliminary test.
Some of the changes that have occurred in New Jersey this year are so significant. The margin shifted at least 20 points in Trump’s favor from 2020 in each of the six large cities or towns where Hispanics make up over 70% of the population. And compared to 2016, it’s much more extreme.
Newark, the state’s largest metropolis, is now somewhat less of a Democratic vote bank due to the rise in Hispanic support for Trump. Hispanics now make up over 40% of Newark’s population, whereas Black people make up nearly half of the city’s 305,000 inhabitants. Although Kamala Harris defeated Trump by 58 points this year, it was still a huge improvement over the 85-point defeat he sustained in his first run in 2016.
The community of Palisades Park, North Jersey, which has one of the largest concentrations of Korean Americans in the nation, is experiencing a similar situation. Trump lost by only 5 points in November in Palisades Park, which is 63% Asian American, as opposed to 22 points in 2020 and 32 points in 2016.
One of the biggest Orthodox Jewish communities outside of Israel is found in Lakewood. With no slowing in sight, the township’s population has more than doubled, from 60,000 in 2000 to an estimated 140,000 in the most recent census. Trump has elevated it to a new level and it is now a significant source of GOP support throughout the state. In 2016, Trump won Lakewood by a margin of 50 points. He increased that figure to 75 points in November of this year.
Democrats in New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial contest will undoubtedly be hoping that Trump’s demographic gains are unique to him. Additionally, they have at least some cause for hope: In each of these categories, Democrat Andy Kim outperformed Harris in the state’s battle for an open U.S. Senate this year. For instance, he outscored Harris by 13 points overall in Passaic, defeating his Republican opponent by 6 points.
Republicans should also be encouraged by the fact that, despite Kim’s victory over Harris, his level of popularity in these areas was still generally far lower than that of Democrats prior to Trump.
As the contest for governor progresses, it will make all of these locations worth closely monitoring.
Senators are skeptical of Trump s call for a bipartisan deal on Dreamers
By Sahil Kapur
Some senators felt a twinge of déjà vu when President-elect Donald Trump stated on NBC News Meet the Press that he was interested in reaching an agreement with Democrats to safeguard Dreamers who were brought to the country at a young age.
The Dreamers are individuals who were brought here at a very young age, so we must take action. And a large number of these individuals are now middle-aged. Trump said to anchor Kristen Welker, “They don’t even speak the language of their country.” I’ll come up with a plan with the Democrats.
Leading Senate Republicans expressed pessimism about the chances of a compromise when questioned about Trump’s comments, but they did not rule it out.
We shall see. We have repeatedly failed to find the ideal immigration reform solution. Incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., stated, “I’m definitely open to what we can do if there is a bipartisan willingness to take on that issue.” Long-term, it would be preferable if we could find some legislative solutions, but in the past several administrations, executive action has been used for everything. Therefore, something will be needed to break the impasse.
Despite using similar rhetoric throughout his first administration, Trump’s actions belied his words. He attempted to terminate the DACA program, which shielded undocumented immigrants who entered the country as minors from deportation, while he was president in 2017. And in 2018, when Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, and Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., negotiated a bipartisan agreement to grant Dreamers legal status in exchange for Trump funding for his border wall, Trump’s White House was able to thwart the agreement since it failed to limit family-based immigration as well.
Dick Durbin, a Democrat from Illinois and the Senate Judiciary Chair, who introduced the first Dream Act in 2001, said he was paying close attention to Trump’s remarks on the subject on Sunday and welcomed discussions.
My ears pricked up. “I’m ready after 23 years,” he declared. Anytime, wherever, let’s take a seat.
However, Durbin noted, there is cause for skepticism, if not outright cynicism.
Continue reading
Additional MTP interview response:Trump’s proposal in his Meet the Press interview that the panel’s former members should be imprisoned was rebutted by Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., who chaired the now-defunct House Jan. 6 committee.Continue reading
Today s top stories
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McConnell update:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, 82, is recovering from minor injuries after falling following Senate Republicans’ weekly lunch on Tuesday, his office said.Read more
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At the plate:
Trump is going to bat for Tulsi Gabbard, his pick to be the country s top intelligence official, who is facing scrutiny as she meets with senators this week.Read more
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Hit the ground running:
While Trump is looking to fill many key administration posts with outsiders, his selection for acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Caleb Vitello, has decades of experience with the agency.Read more
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House call:
Democratic senators want answers from Mehmet Oz on his “previous advocacy for Medicare privatization as he seeks to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.Read more
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Final report:
The bipartisan House task force investigating the assassination attempts against Trump is out with its final report, including dozens of recommendations.Read more
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That s classified:
In his first term, Trump s Justice Department secretly obtained phone and text message logs of 43 congressional staffers and two members of Congress during an investigation into leaks.Read more
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Won t back down:
New York Attorney General Letitia James has rejected Trump’s request to walk away from her office’s $486 million civil fraud judgment against him.Read more
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Youth movement:
A growing band of younger, more energetic House Democrats is challenging seasoned veterans for powerful congressional posts, upending the party s long-standing practice of deference to seniority.Read more
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Hey neighbor:
Trump posted a social media message mocking Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the governor of the Great State of Canada.Read more
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