You’re not used to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The two-time defending champion Chiefs are 12-1 going into this weekend, leading the AFC, and many people still likely believe they will be the conference’s representative in the Super Bowl.
That’s the typical portion.
The portion that’s not so normal? In practically every game, Kansas City is barely winning. The Chiefs’ victories are so close together that their plus-56 point differential is more akin to that of the NFL’s worst club (the Carolina Panthers) than its greatest (the Detroit Lions).
This season, Kansas City has been like that. The Chiefs, who have won three Super Bowls in five years, have one of the best coaches in the league, and 29-year-old Patrick Mahomes may retire today and still be eligible for the first ballot Hall of Fame.
However, Kansas City appears to be more exposed than before.
Mahomes’ yards-per-game average and passing rating are at their lowest points in their careers. The Chiefs are a defense-first squad that scuffs and claws its way to victory, frequently not until the very last seconds, as opposed to an offensive powerhouse that can score points quickly. Really!
In the last minute of regulation or overtime, Kansas City either seized the lead or produced the game-winning defensive play in eight of its 12 victories this season. When it comes to one-score contests, the Chiefs are 10-0. Additionally, they are the first team in history to win ten of their first thirteen games by seven points or less.
Despite having just the third-best point differential in the division, Kansas City defeated the Los Angeles Chargers in its most recent game to win the AFC West for the seventh time in a row. Of the 37 teams that have begun a season 12-1 since 1929, the team’s point differential of plus-56 is also the worst.
Since October, the Chiefs have failed to win a game by more than ten points. They have won all three of their previous games by a combined total of seven points. Despite being outscored by two points, they are 3-1 in their last four games. Since the beginning of November, Kansas City has won by an average of just three points.
How does this continue to occur? Indeed, good fortune has played a role.
As Week 1 came to a close, the Baltimore Ravens appeared to have delivered a touchdown pass that could have tied the game or won it, but their tight end’s heel went a few inches out of bounds.
In Week 3, the Chiefs defeated the Cincinnati Bengals by kicking a game-winning field goal as time ran out thanks to a pass interference call on fourth-and-16 with less than a minute remaining.
In Week 10, when the Denver Broncos lined up for a game-winning field goal, the kick was blocked due to a collapse on the left side of their offensive line.
In the last minute of Week 13, the Las Vegas Raiders were driving and inside a field goal range, but they fumbled a snap on third down, and Kansas City rallied.
Naturally, the Chiefs would contend that they are in control of their own destiny.
It was an excellent special teams play when the kick was blocked. Against the Raiders, the defense still needed to recover the fumble. Additionally, Mahomes has frequently saved his best for the most important parts of the game, like as when he scurried and made a clutch throw to Travis Kelce on third-and-seven to set up the game-winning kick against the Chargers.
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Why is all of this so crucial? Well, it doesn’t make sense in terms of what constitutes a great team. For instance, prior to winning the Super Bowl, the Kansas City teams in 2019 and 2022 both finished fourth in the point difference.
According to historical data, a team’s point differential—rather than just their win-loss record—is a more accurate predictor of success. Additionally, a team’s record in one-score games typically gets closer to.500 with time.
This season, the Chiefs have defied that pattern, and if they were any other club, many would probably question them. For instance, the Minnesota Vikings finished 13-4 in 2022, with a minus-3 point deficit. Their only postseason game was a home loss.
Will anyone have the audacity to question Kansas City? Only two of Mahomes’ 15-3 playoff record had occurred prior to the Super Bowl. (As an added precaution, both needed overtime.)
With just four games remaining and a two-game lead for the top seed, the Chiefs are certain to earn home-field advantage in the postseason. Even while Kansas City appears to be beatable on paper, it is still unclear if anyone can defeat them in real life.
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