What can be the most crucial The NFL matchup in Week 15 isn’t a matchup between the division leaders. Not even two teams with winning records are included.
However, of the week’s noteworthy games, the Indianapolis Colts’ trip to Denver to play the Broncos could be the one that has the greatest potential to change the playoff picture.
No, it’s not the 10-win Buffalo Bills vs. 12-win Detroit Lions or the 10-win Pittsburgh Steelers vs. 11-win Philadelphia Eagles, two games on Sunday that might determine the No. 1 spot in the NFC or maintain long-shot routes to the top slot in the AFC. However, those four teams are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs or have already secured them. Meanwhile, the Broncos (8-5) and Colts (6-7) are still vying for spots one month before the playoffs start, and they have the potential to change the wild-card race and, consequently, the bottom of the AFC bracket.
Each conference sends seven teams to the playoffs. The Colts are in ninth place, and the Broncos are in seventh. Denver is one of four 8-5 teams attempting to fend off Miami and Indianapolis, the two 6-7 teams in the league that are not in the running for the playoffs.
That’s why the December Colts-Broncos game has the atmosphere of a playoff game.
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According to NFL.com’s splayoff probabilitytracker, a victory would raise the Colts’ odds of qualifying for the playoffs from 25% to 51%. However, a defeat would reduce that likelihood to 3%, so turning this game into a de facto elimination. When the Colts were 3-3 in October and had benched quarterback Anthony Richardson, their 2023 first-round pick, it would not have been anticipated that they would even be in a position to possibly make the playoffs. With two comeback wins in the fourth quarter, Indianapolis is 2-1 since Richardson was reinstated.
According to the NFL, the Broncos, one of four 8-5 teams in the AFC, may advance to 91% odds of making the postseason with a victory, but they cannot guarantee a postseason berth. However, they would have a 50/50 chance if they lost.
One of the NFL’s more unexpected tales has been the Broncos.
Denver and rookie quarterback Bo Nix have won three games in a row and five of their last seven, all by double digits, one year after the Broncos traded for their next quarterback, Russell Wilson. After losing his first two games and throwing for only 60 yards in his fourth, Nix had a difficult learning curve to start his NFL career. However, according to Covers, Nix is now behind only Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels in the NFL Rookie of the Year rankings after throwing for 12 touchdowns and three interceptions in his last seven games.
Five seasons since 2000 have seen more than one rookie quarterback start in the postseason. With Daniels and Nix, it might be six. To get there, though, both still need to put in some effort.
For Nix, that means winning a game on Sunday that is possibly the most important one on the schedule but will never be mistaken for its most anticipated contest.
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