WASHINGTON — Although President-elect Donald Trump won’t take office for another month, concerns about a potential government shutdown are causing Washington to wonder how a funding lapse may impact Trump’s inauguration, the certification of his election, and the start of the next Congress.
In a nutshell, probably not much.
This is due to the fact that gaps in service do not affect the personnel or operations that uphold the constitutional responsibilities of the president, Congress, life, and property.
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Congress and previous administrations, including Trump’s, have plenty of experience with continuing to function during a shutdown, even though the federal government has never been closed for business in the January after a presidential election.
Parliamentary specialists have spent time on Capitol Hill speculating about what may occur in different scenarios. What we know and don’t know about a historic pre-inauguration shutdown is as follows.
The new Congress
The new Congress meets on January 3 at noon in accordance with the Constitution’s 20th amendment.
Since politicians and key aides are not required to cease operations during a shutdown, it would not have an impact on that process alone. Only those employees whose positions are not vital to lawmaking, security, and other activities connected to Congress’ constitutional duties would be placed on furlough, however some would be considered non-essential.
The administration has no authority over congressional staff, but it does enforce shutdown procedures for federal agencies.
The certification of the election results
The kind of political turmoil that resulted in this month’s shutdown battle may prevent Congress from fulfilling its constitutional obligations, even though a lapse in federal money wouldn’t.
The House elects its speaker before MPs are sworn in on January 3, allowing for the conduct of all following business. However, as seen by his inability to secure the votes necessary to keep the government open, current Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is in hot seat.
On January 7, 2023, after five days and fifteen rounds of voting, Republicans awarded the speaker’s gavel to then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.
That makes it more likely that the House won’t choose a speaker before January 6, when Congress certifies the electoral votes needed to elect Trump to the presidency.
No one has the procedural authority to begin counting the electoral votes if there is no speaker. The newly elected parliamentarians cannot be sworn in without a speaker, therefore they are unable to formally vote to reopen the government or certify the electoral votes.
Nobody anticipates that Jan. 6, 2025, will be a rerun of the same day in 2021, when a group of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in an unsuccessful attempt to prevent President Joe Biden’s loss from being certified. However, a headless house is a related option, which is a distinct form of disorder.
The Senate does not have to deal with the same procedural obstacles because it is a continuing body and two-thirds of its members were not on the November ballot.
House leaders have been told by Capitol Hill parliamentary specialists that if Republicans cannot agree on a speaker by January 6, there may be ways to get around the problem.
One former House aide who is acquainted with the situation and was given anonymity to talk frankly stated that the House can pick a temporary speaker or a speaker with a limited purpose or duration as one of its options if there is problems.
However, as stated by the expert, “This is all new territory.”
The inauguration
In a rare occasion when all three branches of government are present at the same time and location, the top justice of the United States typically swears in the new president on the Capitol’s west front. It is a significant national security event that necessitates close cooperation between federal agencies, the administration, Capitol Police, and law enforcement in Washington, D.C.
The Office of Management and Budget has made it clear in its guidance to agencies that workers who support the president’s official actions and provide for public safety should stay at their posts, even though some employees at each of the federal security agencies would be subject to furlough during a shutdown.
The Department of Homeland Security’s contingency plan for a shutdown, for instance, calls for keeping 150,063 workers who are essential to preserving life and property and 152 who are required to carry out the president’s constitutional responsibilities.
In order to prevent its turf from becoming littered in the event of a shutdown, the National Park Service, which is in charge of maintaining the grounds of the National Mall and nearby landmarks, has a strategy in place. In order to maintain toilets and sanitation, garbage collection, law enforcement emergency operations, and the preservation of park resources, the Park Service is permitted to utilize “the minimal level of its money to provide critical health, public safety, and protection services as an exempt activity.”
However, officials are busily preparing to transfer information and power at federal agencies in the run-up to the inauguration. Although the effects are still unknown, a shutdown will make such task more difficult, according to an administration official.
“A shutdown this close to inauguration will be incredibly disruptive to the new administration,” this individual stated. “It will make it much harder for the agency landing teams to meet with their outgoing counterparts and slow down the offboarding and onboarding process.” This isn’t the best way to get ready to take office, but we’re in fairly unfamiliar ground.”
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