Enjoy the latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill, and the campaign trail from the NBC News Politics team in this special pre-holiday edition of From the Politics Desk, an evening email.
Today, we reflect on the key plot points that shaped the previous year. We’re taking the remainder of the week off, but on Monday, we’ll be back in your inbox with an overview of the factors that will influence 2025.
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5 storylines that defined 2024
By Mark Murray
Here is a summary of the major political events that influenced 2024 in descending order, with the year coming to a conclusion, President Joe Biden leaving, President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House, and a new Congress taking office next month.
5. Trump’s straightforward route to the Republican nomination.It’s crucial to keep in mind that there was no assurance that Trump would be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee at the start of the 2024 election cycle.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley had the makings of a strong opponent, Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., had some early momentum and funding, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was in close proximity to Trump in early polls.
However, Trump ultimately prevailed in all but Vermont and Washington, D.C., GOP nominating contests.
Trump’s grasp on the GOP remained strong even after his loss in 2020, the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and the party’s poor showing in the 2022 midterm elections. Pre-primary polls showed that at least half of Republican voters wanted him to remain the party’s leader.
4. Trump’s unsuccessful legal challenges.In 2024, there was a split screen between the action in the courtroom and the campaign trail.
In the hush money case, Trump was ultimately found guilty on 34 felony counts after facing four distinct indictments. All of them were meant to symbolize one of the election’s pivotal events.
However, in terms of politics, they mostly did nothing more than assist Trump in uniting the Republican base. And after Trump won in November and was able to postpone proceedings and punishment, many of the cases ended.
3. The game-changing presidential debate.Many voters were already worried about President Joe Biden’s age and suitability for a second term going into the debate in June, the first general election contest in history.
And those concerns were only validated during the debate, when he appeared weak on stage and constantly fumbled over his words.
Democratic concerns were raised by the performance right away. Despite growing calls from his own party for him to withdraw, Biden insisted he would stay in the campaign. One month later, he left school.
2. Although not substantially more popular than Trump, Harris surpassed Biden in popularity.The Democratic Party came together around Vice President Kamala Harris, who had a political honeymoon, as soon as Biden left office.
In thefinal NBC News pollbefore the election, Harris had a favorable rating of 43% positive, 50% negative (-7 net rating) significantly higher than Biden s score of 35% positive, 52% negative (-17).
But Harris numbers weren t far removed from Trump s: 42% positive, 51% negative (-9).
1. The Democrats were doomed by worries about the economy and inflation.In the end, it was the economy, stupid.
Despite strong job creation and inflation cooling to itslowest level since 2021, most American voters weren t happy with the economy or Biden s handling of it.
Two-thirdssaidtheir family s income was falling behind the cost of living, and only 25% of voterssaidBiden s policies were helping their family (compared with 44% who said that about Trump when he was president), according to NBC News polling.
And per theNBC News Exit Poll, 32% of voters said the economy was their most important issue and Trump bested Harris among those voters 81% to 18%.
Why 2024 was the ultimate ‘what if’ election
By Chuck Todd
There are so many holiday traditions in Washington congressional negotiations that go too long, crowded parties, inhumane traffic around the National Christmas Tree lighting.
But one holiday tradition that we look forward to is our annual What If series of alternative history episodes on theChuck ToddCast. Every year, we ask our listeners to share their favorite ideas for possible twists and turns in history that could have changed everything about politics.
This year, our listeners asked about all the other ways the 2024 election might have played out. They also asked questions about Donald Trump (What if Trump bought the Buffalo Bills in 2014?), American history (What if George Washington ran for a third term?), and so many more. We had questions about Jeb Bush and Ross Perot, about the Gulf War and the Cold War someone even shared a smart question about Democrats disastrous 2020 Iowa caucuses.
Asking these questions are about more than just scratching an itch, but about investigating how the hard certainties of our world could have been fundamentally different, and asking what that would have said about our country, our history and ourselves.
We re kicking off this year s series with one of my favorite alternative history connoisseurs, Politico’sJonathan Martin, to talk about what other twists and turns we might have seen in the 2024 election. You might think that an election year like 2024, with so many unexpected developments, would satisfy anyone s curiosity for asking What if? but in a year that could have been its own alternative history, the possibilities are endless.
Listen here
That s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback likes or dislikes email us [email protected]
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