In an attempt to fill a void that has existed for more than two years, Lebanon’s parliament was scheduled to try to elect a president once more on Thursday.
There are signs that Thursday’s vote could result in a head of state, despite the fact that 12 prior attempts to select a successor to former President Michel Aoun, whose tenure ended in October 2022, have failed.
Joseph Aoun, a Lebanese sea captain who has no connection to the former president, is the front-runner. He is generally seen as the preferred candidate of Saudi Arabia and the United States, whose support Lebanon will require as it attempts to recover from a 14-month conflict between Israel and the terrorist Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Suleiman Frangieh, the head of a tiny Christian party in northern Lebanon with strong ties to former Syrian President Bashar Assad, was another candidate that Hezbollah had previously supported.
Frangieh, however, appeared to make room for the army chief on Wednesday when he declared he had dropped out of the campaign and endorsed Aoun.
For political and procedural grounds, Lebanon’s contentious sectarian power-sharing system is prone to impasse. There have been multiple prolonged presidential vacancies in the tiny, crisis-plagued Mediterranean nation, the longest of which lasted about two and a half years, from May 2014 to October 2016. With the election of former President Michel Aoun, it came to an end.
According to Lebanon’s constitution, Joseph Aoun is constitutionally ineligible to serve as president because he is currently the head of the army. Although the prohibition has previously been lifted, Aoun now faces more formalities.
Normally, a two-thirds majority of the 128-member house can pick a presidential candidate in Lebanon, and in a future round, a simple majority can do the same.
However, even in the second round, Aoun would require a two-thirds majority due to constitutional concerns surrounding his election.
Elias al-Baysari, the interim head of Lebanon’s General Security agency, and Jihad Azour, a former finance minister who currently serves as the director of the International Monetary Fund’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, are other candidates.
A permanent prime minister and cabinet must be appointed by the president. Since it was not chosen by a sitting president, the caretaker administration that has governed Lebanon for the past two years has less authority.
Aside from implementing the ceasefire deal that ended the Israel-Hezbollah war and securing funding for reconstruction, the incoming government will face formidable obstacles.
The economic and financial crisis that has plagued Lebanon for six years has destroyed the country’s currency and wiped out many Lebanese people’s savings. Only a few hours of power are provided daily by the state electrical provider, which is severely short on funds.
Although the country’s authorities have made little headway on the reforms needed to seal the pact, they did strike a preliminary agreement with the IMF in 2022 for a bailout package.