Rebuilding America’s second-largest city is a significant new challenge that the people attempting to plan a successful first half of Trump’s second term must face and embrace just days before Washington formally returns to the Trump era.
The fact that the best-laid plans of a new (or just re-elected) president have all fallen apart quite fast due to unanticipated catastrophes is a defining characteristic of every presidency I’ve discussed. Presidencies rarely go as planned, whether it’s due to a pandemic, a hurricane that almost completely destroys a major city, a terrorist attack in the country’s largest city, an oil leak at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, an economic collapse, or, more recently, uncontrolled fires encroaching on a vast urban population.
Donald Trump is frequently blaming California Democrats for the devastation from his pre-inauguration bully pulpit as some Republicans in Congress discuss placing restrictions on relief funds for California. Trying to desensitize his constituency to any political repercussions for not completely supporting Southern California may be the ultimate objective, if there is one. However, that is not a strategy that will work after he becomes president. It will easily backfire on him if he doesn’t help completely. Many Republicans have also had their homes burned down, so it’s not just Democrats.
Trump will not be evaluated based on the number of likes on his social media tweets, despite the commotion he is creating about incompetence among California and Los Angeles authorities. His administration’s ability to handle this situation will also be evaluated. Building resilience is the aim of all federal disaster assistance in order to make the expense of recovering from the next unavoidable natural disaster more affordable.
The city and state of New York alone did not rebuild the ground zero of New York City. Rebuilding New Orleans required more than just state and local resources. Furthermore, the private sector wasn’t the only one responsible for plugging the oil-spouting hole in the Gulf of Mexico’s bottom.
Republicans who politicize recovery help for Southern California run the risk of facing backlash when they try to increase aid for other conservative-leaning regions that were severely impacted by the fall hurricanes, such as the Gulf Coast of Florida or western North Carolina. Take a look at the (right) political backlash and embarrassment the Federal Emergency Management Agency experienced last fall when a supposedly rogue FEMA official advised first responders not to visit homes that were obviously pro-Trump. The employee was fired for a faulty instinct that seemed to be motivated by political bias.
Too many political fanatics today want to treat the other side the way they think they have been treated, despite the fact that two wrongs never make a right. It’s a kind of ungolden rule that will inevitably lead to civil strife.
In the end, I have no doubt that Republicans in areas affected by recent disasters of their own won’t all choose to punish California because they are aware that their local reputation will be based on how well they were able to use federal funds to assist in the reconstruction of damaged areas in their states, whether it be the Florida coastline or the washed-out mountain roads in North Carolina.
The 2028 Olympics are another reason why I think the reconstruction of the Los Angeles area will have to become a national priority. The world just witnessed Paris use the Olympics to dispel the notion that older European capitals had already seen their greatest days. Los Angeles will host the 2028 Summer Olympics. The Olympics provided much-needed morale boosts for France and Paris. And as long as civic leaders can come together and keep their eyes on the big picture, they have the chance to present a rebuilt and more climate-resilient Los Angeles.
The astute civic leaders in California will understand that if Trump’s ego is properly stroked, he will be willing to assist. Trump will be president when the Games start in 2028. Though it might require different civic leaders to lead the campaign than those we currently see doing so, there are enough transactional-style leaders in the tech circles of California and Hollywood to make this happen. However, everyone is looking at the chance to essentially co-opt Trump through flattery and possible Olympic glory (the president who helped save the Olympics for L.A.!).
And that leads me to the political traps that the current generation of leaders is currently facing.
Some people might not politically bounce back from the perceived shortcomings of the government. I use the word perceived because it’s possible that even the best-prepared city for urban wildfires would have been overwhelmed by these fires, and they probably did.
The mayor of New Orleans, the governor of Louisiana, and the president were among the public figures who never fully recovered from Hurricane Katrina. It was more about their seeming lack of preparation in the wake of the storm than it was about what they had done before it struck.
That may turn out to be the tale of this disaster in the Los Angeles area. Karen Bass, the city’s mayor, doesn’t appear to have the organizational and public speaking abilities to handle this crisis for frightened and desperate Angelenos. She may be an excellent team player, one of the abilities that have enabled her to be a successful leader in both the U.S. House and the California Assembly. However, those are legislative, cooperative positions. Her experience as a collaborative lawmaker does not necessarily translate to a crisis like this one, and this is her first elected leadership position.
I wouldn’t write off her career just yet, either. I believe that everyone will be evaluated according on how quickly the recovery proceeds, including Bass, California Governor Gavin Newsom, outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris (who is from California), and the incoming president. How did they speed up the reconstruction? What steps did they take to remove barriers so that aid could reach those in need as quickly as possible? Be ready for the criticism if someone is discovered to be more concerned with making political statements.
I do believe that Bass and Newsom have come out as a little defensive in these early days. I can see why: Some of the online insults are ridiculous, and the speculations about what could have been done—such as Trump’s social media posts about shifting all this water from the north to aid the south—are more improbable than most people think. However, you are losing in politics if you are trying to explain. When questioned about whether they should have taken this or that action earlier, the elected person on the ground should only respond, “I’m not focused on the criticisms; I’m focused on the crisis.”
They may learn from the late Attorney General Janet Reno, who instructed Republican critics of the notorious attack on the Waco, Texas, Branch Davidian sect to place all the responsibility on her. She claimed to have made the choice and to be accountable for it. That moment was noteworthy because, rather than causing her harm, her choice to take responsibility increased her popularity and trust.
In the end, reconstructing the damaged areas of Southern California will reshape California politics for the next four years, with some of these elected officials’ final test coming in 2028 for the Summer Olympics. Voters will applaud government leaders who stayed focused if Los Angeles can bounce back and host an Olympics like to Paris in 2028 with a more resilient metropolis as the backdrop. But there’s no denying that this will temporarily upend California politics.
All of the 2026 gubernatorial contenders must have preparations in place to handle the risks of natural disasters, insurance driving up the cost of gorgeous real estate, and reconstruction. Don’t be shocked if voters seek out a different kind of leader to accomplish this; perhaps successful developers or former company leaders want to run, or even a fire victim who becomes well-known or influential in their own right. The key takeaway is to be cautious if you have a traditional political career and believe that now is your time to become governor or another elected person.
The Democrats will have controlled the California governor’s office for 16 consecutive years, or four consecutive elections, provided Newsom completes his term as anticipated. Neither party has had such a run in the state for nearly a century (Republicans from 1918 to 1934). The point is that, merely because to one-party-control tiredness, the state already had some prerequisites for change prior to this catastrophic disaster. There is a good chance that voters will be receptive to something novel and unusual now that there is a new motivating problem. If the victor of the upcoming gubernatorial election can demonstrate that they are approaching the position from a different perspective or career path, they are likely to have greater success.
To put it another way, if I were the outgoing vice president and a former senator from California, I might decide not to run for any office in 2026—especially governor—in favor of using my connections and expertise to head a public-private commission that would rebuild the area and increase California’s fire resistance. It’s likely that those connected to California’s traditional or outdated political system will find it difficult to convince the state that they are the change agents it needs during this pivotal moment in its history.
Rebuilding the Los Angeles area and maintaining a healthy insurance sector are the only issues that will likely be important in California for the foreseeable future, making it possible for the typical middle-class Californian to purchase a home in the largest state in the union. Until then, everything else will be far less important.
L.A., good luck. Like New Orleans after Katrina, Wall Street after 9/11, San Francisco (a few times after earthquakes), and Chicago (after its own notorious fire), I have no doubt that the city will recover and do it in a positive way. We can’t wait for that new day to arrive. However, L.A. is the city that knows how to make a Hollywood ending.