In his first week or two back in office, President Donald Trump quickly fulfilled a number of campaign-trail pledges, granted a plethora of pardons (some controversial), and exacted revenge on his political rivals.
According to early polling, Trump is starting the election with greater support from the public and more leeway than he had before his first term in office. However, it is unclear how voters will evaluate his initial acts as president.
Compared to January 2017, the previous president’s image rating was higher as he began his second term. Just 38% of Americans gave Trump a good rating in NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted in the days leading up to his first inauguration, whereas 42% of registered voters did so at that time, according to Fox News.
According to the most recent Fox News survey, Trump has a 50% favorable and 50% negative rating among registered voters. According to a recent Wall Street Journal survey, 51% of registered voters had a negative opinion of him, while 47% had a positive opinion. Both surveys were taken prior to Trump’s inauguration.
Americans’ expectations for Trump are divided in the polls. According to a CNN poll, 43% of American adults believe Trump will be extremely poor or very poor, while 56% believe he would be a very excellent or pretty good president. While CNN’s January 2017 poll found respondents divided on their expectations for Trump, with 48% believing he would be very or very good and 48% believing he would be very or fairly awful, the network’s January 2021 preinaugural poll indicated slightly higher expectations ahead of Joe Biden’s tenure.
According to an Ipsos and New York Times pre-inaugural poll, 51% of respondents are either gloomy or concerned about his presidency, while 47% are either thrilled or optimistic.
Meanwhile, the polling indicates both potential and danger for Trump’s presidency with regard to several of the major subjects he has pursued in the early days of his second term.
According to surveys conducted by CNN and The New York Times, Americans’ top concern is by far the economy. However, a lot of Trump’s headlines to date have focused on pardons and immigration, especially his decision to grant a broad pardon to individuals convicted for their actions during the Capitol incident on January 6, 2021.
In general, Americans are more receptive to Trump’s deportation initiatives than they are to the pardons relating to January 6. The polls also indicate that when respondents think about what might happen if (or when) Trump adopts the toughest stance on certain subjects, their support for Trump’s activities declines.
According to the Wall Street Journal, only 38% of voters who were registered supported pardoning all of the defendants from January 6; 57% were against it. In contrast, 54% opposed it and 43% indicated they would reinstate pardons for everyone except those guilty of attacking police officers. (In the end, Trump pardoned almost everyone who was charged with a federal crime, even those found guilty of violent crimes. Sentences for a few additional people found guilty of conspiracy were commuted.)
Regarding immigration enforcement, Trump’s broad promise to implement mass deportations seems to have a majority or significant plurality of support. While 55% of adults in the New York Times/Ipsos poll favored deporting all illegal immigrants in America and 42% opposed it, the Wall Street Journal reported that 52% of registered voters support and 45% oppose the proposal to imprison and deport millions of undocumented immigrants.
It is much more acceptable to limit deportations to only individuals who are illegally present and have criminal records: According to the Wall Street Journal poll, 74% of registered voters approve the program, while 87% of adults support it, according to the New York Times/Ipsos poll.
Deporting people, however, is less common. According to a Wall Street Journal poll, a full 70% of registered voters are against deporting undocumented immigrants who have paid taxes and have been in the country for more than ten years without a criminal record. Additionally, according to the survey, 38% of respondents supported the idea of deporting undocumented immigrants with American-citizen children, while 57% opposed the idea.
According to a New York Times/Ipsos poll, 60% of adults believe that the United States should “pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home,” which is largely in line with Trump’s campaign rhetoric. In contrast, 38% of adults believe that it is “best for the future of our country to be active in world affairs.” Only a small majority think that America is helping Israel and Ukraine too much. (In each instance, less than 20% want an increase in aid, while roughly 30% favor maintaining the status quo.)
Additionally, there are significant differences across the nation regarding transgender issues as a result of Trump’s executive order stating that the federal government recognizes only two sexes, male and female, and his criticism of the Biden administration’s policy on transgender people.
Adult Americans are largely divided on whether society has accommodated transgender people in a way that is appropriate. 49% of respondents believe society has gone too far in finding the appropriate balance, 21% believe society hasn’t gone far enough, and 28% believe society has found a reasonable balance, according to data from The New York Times/Ipsos.
However, there is much greater support for another of Trump’s policies: prohibiting transgender women from participating in women’s sports. According to the poll, transgender women are “athletes who were male at birth but who currently identify as female.” In that same survey, 79% of individuals supported such proposition, while only 18% objected. Additionally, 71% of respondents stated that they thought hormone therapy and puberty-blocking medications used in transgender care should not be available to anyone younger than 18.
How much runway do voters typically give new presidents?
Even while Trump is in better position than he was during his first term and the swing voters who supported him seem willing to give him some leeway, an examination of NBC News polling over the previous five presidents demonstrates how brief White House honeymoons can be.
In April 2021, Biden’s approval rating was 51%; by late October, it had dropped to 45%, and by March 2022, it had fallen to 41%. According to NBC News polls, his approval rating never rose beyond 46% during the remainder of his term.
In February 2017, Trump’s initial approval rating in NBC polls was 44%; by the third NBC News poll of the year, conducted in May, that figure had dropped to 39%. However, compared to other recent presidents, Trump’s approval rating was less variable, remaining within a rather small range of 39% to 47% throughout his term.
In an NBC News poll the following month, then-President Barack Obama’s 60% support rating from early March 2009 remained stable. Although his December 2009 low of 47% (the first NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll to find him below 50% approval) was significantly higher than the lowest points Trump or Biden’s ratings hit, his approval rating fell in four of the following five polls. Obama’s approval rating fluctuated around 50% from the first decline until the summer before the 2010 midterm elections.
Comparing the first years of previous presidencies is challenging because the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, clouded the first year of then-President George W. Bush’s administration.
Additionally, the approval rating of then-President Bill Clinton increased slightly from 51% shortly after he took office to 57% in March 1993, but it fell to 41% by June 1993 before making a long march back to 60% on the first anniversary of his inauguration. Before Republicans won control of Congress in the 1994 midterm elections, Clinton’s approval rating fell all the way to 43%.