Polling for the 2028 Republican presidential primaries is already picking up steam, even though the official state contests are still about three years away. Despite the early stage, some clear front-runners are beginning to emerge.
Why It Matters?
Following Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 election, Republicans now hold the White House, Senate, and House. Many GOP leaders view this as a strong endorsement from voters to advance their legislative agenda nationwide.
What the Latest Polls Show?
A new Yale Youth Poll released this week shows Vice President JD Vance leading the 2028 GOP primary field with support from 53 percent of respondents. Among voters under 30, 50 percent said they’d back him.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. trailed in second with 8.7 percent overall support, including 13.1 percent from younger voters.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in third, with 7.5 percent overall and 5.8 percent among voters under 30.
The Yale poll was conducted between April 1 and April 3, surveying 4,100 registered voters with a margin of error of 1.9 percent.
Another survey from Echelon Insights, conducted from April 10 to 14, also placed Vance in the lead with 47 percent. DeSantis followed with 9 percent, and RFK Jr. had 7 percent. This poll included 1,014 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
Democratic Landscape
On the Democratic side, early favorites include former Vice President Kamala Harris, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Expert Insights
Political analyst Craig Agranoff told Newsweek that GOP voters in 2028 may seek a candidate with Trump’s endorsement but without the more divisive elements of MAGA politics.
He added, “They’ll likely value authenticity and a practical governing style,” especially if that appeals to both the party base and swing voters.
MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell remarked on X, “The 2028 Republican Presidential Primary campaign is underway. Rubio v Vance will be, among other things, a cruelty contest.”
Representative Ro Khanna, speaking at Yale University, criticized Vance, saying: “Vance has not only declared war on the courts, but on the universities,” adding that authoritarian figures often fear education more than anything else.
What’s Next?
As more polls are released in the coming months, the Republican primary field will continue to take shape. While it’s too early to predict the final nominee, the current numbers suggest JD Vance is emerging as a strong contender.