In the memoir that made him famous,
JD Vance
practically apologized for the book’s existence, writing that he had “accomplished nothing great” in his life — “certainly nothing that would justify a complete stranger paying money to read about it.”
Nearly a decade later, Vance, now 40,
is the vice president-elect
and potential heir to a political movement that has
realigned the Republican Party
.
History will remember him for more than “Hillbilly Elegy,” his bestseller that was made into a movie. What for, exactly, depends on the path Vance charts when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office — and if it leads to his one day calling that office his own.
Vance, a first-term senator from Ohio, has said little about his vision for the vice presidency other than to mention a few areas of policy interest, like immigration. As a candidate, he stuck faithfully to Trump’s script,
filling in the blanks when necessary
but rarely
overstepping
the man whose endorsement lifted him out of a crowded GOP primary in 2022.
Those who have watched his rapid ascension expect that dynamic to continue, even if and when Vance prepares to run for president in 2028. Allies of Trump and Vance believe loyalty is Vance’s greatest attribute and his smartest play for the short-term future of their administration and for his longer-term political future.
“He will focus on any issues that the president directs him to do,” said a source familiar with the Trump-Vance relationship, who like others, was granted anonymity to share candid observations.
Vance’s unshakeable allegiance to Trump has been his calling card since his well-documented conversion from Trump critic to champion, and
their bond tightened as running mates
. They speak by phone daily and at all hours. After he voted on Election Day near his home in Cincinnati, Vance told reporters about the 3 a.m. phone call he had missed from Trump a few hours earlier. Trump was headed home from his final campaign rally, but Vance was already asleep.
“There’s a lot of trust between them, so I think they’re going to be able to get a lot done,” said Jordan Wiggins, who managed Vance’s 2022 Senate campaign. “He’s not going to go up there and make it all about him.”
Recent history is filled with tension points between presidents and vice presidents.
Al Gore worried
that Bill Clinton’s affair with an intern sank his White House bid in 2000. Joe Biden
asked to be “the last guy in the room”
whenever Barack Obama had a tough decision to make — and angered Obama by speaking out of turn about issues like gay marriage.
Trump, who will be the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve nonconsecutive terms, has his own complicated history.
Former Vice President Mike Pence was, for most of their four years together, a loyal partner who helped smooth Trump’s dealings with establishment Republicans and evangelical conservatives. But Pence split with Trump on Jan. 6, 2021, refusing to interfere with the 2020 election results. That day,
egged on by Trump
— who at one point accused Pence on social media of lacking “courage” — rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol, some of them chanting, “Hang Mike Pence.” Their relationship ended badly,
crushing Pence’s presidential ambitions
.
Vance will face a different calculus. Unlike most vice presidents who look toward re-election in four years before they plot their own presidential campaigns, he will have less time to plan than his predecessors did, given that Trump is term-limited under the 22nd Amendment.
“It compresses things,” said Joel Goldstein, a vice presidential scholar and professor emeritus at Saint Louis University. “Instead of having a term to sort of settle in as vice president and, in a sense, benefit from what that office adds as a springboard, people will start going to Iowa and New Hampshire,” the early nominating states.
For Vance, it could be a short but high-launching runway. Despite the success of “Hillbilly Elegy” and nearly two years in the Senate, he is a relative newcomer in the eyes of many voters. His
introduction as Trump’s running mate
drew attention to some of his more provocative comments, particularly about marriage and motherhood. At one point,
polling showed him
to be one of the least-liked vice presidential candidates over the last 30 years.
But Vance’s image improved over time. By Election Day, voters were roughly split between having favorable and unfavorable opinions of him, putting him on par with his Democratic counterpart, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, according to NBC News exit polls.
Vance’s team accomplished that, in part, by keeping him visible — and not just in right-wing media spaces. He frequently appeared on Sunday news programs like NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” often coming off as polite, if adversarial. The strategy was to defy the perceptions of Vance as an unserious and unreasonable flamethrower.
“We successfully leveraged how unhinged the media was and flipped it to our advantage,” a source close to Vance said. “We allowed JD to basically show his chops. The real irony is if the media wasn’t so biased and it wasn’t so obvious, he probably wouldn’t be the star he is today.”
Vance’s media-forward strategy could continue when he is vice president, giving him a platform no other GOP contender will have. Defending Trump will be his first priority. Tending to his own political future will be secondary. Sometimes those goals will align, but not always.
“I don’t want to get ahead of anybody on this stuff,” Wiggins, the former campaign manager, said when he was asked how Vance might balance the demands of being a loyal vice president with the interests of his political future. “I think his actions are going to speak louder than any words.”
Vance is seen within Trump world as a savvy political operator who, while he may have defined policy views, isn’t an ideologue, a campaign official said. Those close to Trump don’t see Vance as someone who would expend political capital to pursue an agenda that runs counter to his. What best serves Vance’s political ambitions, this official said, would be a successful Trump administration free of infighting in which Vance can shine.
One piece of Vance’s portfolio could build on his constitutional role as president of the Senate, where he typically will be needed only to cast tiebreaking votes. Vance will be Trump’s “eyes and ears” in the chamber, the source familiar with their relationship said.
Republicans will have a majority there, and
Trump is making his presence felt
in the race for GOP leader. His appointments and his agenda will hinge on how compliant his party is.
“JD,” the source familiar with their relationship said, “wants to be a hammer for Trump in the Senate.”
Vance hasn’t made public any demands to oversee specific projects or policy initiatives. In a
recent interview with The New York Times
, he said he and Trump were too “superstitious” to discuss before Election Day what role he might play in the administration, while he described his job as “an extra set of hands for the president.”
Under Clinton, Gore focused on the environment and technology. Under George W. Bush, Dick Cheney exerted influence over foreign policy.
Biden, with his “last guy in the room” promise from Obama, had his hands in a variety of areas. And during his own presidency, Biden tasked Vice President Kamala Harris with
the tough-to-define and tough-to-evaluate assignment
of tackling the root causes of migration from Mexico and Central America. Trump and Vance relentlessly criticized Harris’ role in the Biden administration as they ran against her this fall, characterizing her as a failed “border czar” in an election in which immigration ranked as a top issue.
Vance’s policy interests are “not a secret,” the source familiar with the Trump-Vance relationship said. Vance as a senator and a vice presidential candidate has focused sharply on immigration and border security, as well as trade issues, the rise of big tech and the decline of U.S. manufacturing.
“Certainly, I’d love to be given some influence over our border policy, and I’d basically do the exact opposite of what Kamala Harris did,” Vance said in
a July interview with NBC News
.
In the interview, Vance also expressed an interest in tackling projects related to the opioid crisis and drug treatment. Those issues are especially personal to Vance, who wrote in his book about his mother’s struggles with substance abuse and cheered her on in his
acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention
for 10 years of sobriety.
One clue about how Vance views his job came in August,
when he was asked on ABC’s “This Week”
whom he considers the greatest vice president in his lifetime. The question limited Vance to seven choices, including four Republicans. Without elaborating, he settled on George H.W. Bush, who was about to win a second term with Ronald Reagan when Vance was born in 1984.
Bush was known for his steadfast loyalty to Reagan.
He also was the last sitting vice president to win the presidency.
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