United Arab Emirates’ DUBAI As President-elect Donald Trump gets ready to enter office, shifting tectonic plates are sending tremors of uncertainty from Beijing to Brussels. The consequences might cause the United States’ goals to diverge from those of its closest European allies in ways that haven’t happened in decades.
According to multiple European officials and diplomats who spoke to NBC News, the incoming administration is likely to put pressure on European leaders to adopt a tougher stance against China, which it views as America’s principal adversary. However, their nations are economically intertwined with both powers, and their interests don’t always coincide with Washington’s. They would probably stray even more if Trump were to carry on his pledge to put tariffs on imports from China and Europe.
The implications of the new White House for the war in Ukraine are also a source of uncertainty throughout the continent. Despite Russia’s denials, Trump’s frequent assertion that he could finish the war in a day has raised concerns that he will demand significant concessions that would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.
One European Union official told NBC News on Sunday that Trump’s actions are causing alarm. They will need to take a stand and make a choice.
However, togetherness seems elusive.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the first sitting leader of a major Western nation to speak with Putin since late 2022, was lambasted by a number of European politicians after he called Putin this week to try to convince him to engage in negotiations.
Among them is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who stated that Putin has long desired it in an effort to lessen his isolation from the rest of the world.
The E.U. official went on to say that all of this is frightening Europe. We’ll see what we do about China, and we’ll see what we do about Ukraine, people have been saying in private. However, the world has turned upside down, and they are still unsure of what to do.
Eyes on Beijing
There are indications that European nations may conclude that closer ties with China are the solution, which could cause tensions with the United States.
Trump was intensely focused on China during his first administration and has continued to take a tough stance against the nation, which the U.S. and Europe consider to be a systemic and economic opponent despite being one of their largest trading partners.
Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s choice for national security adviser, wrote in The Economist just days before the U.S. presidential election that the next president should put an immediate end to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine and finally direct strategic attention where it belongs: against the Chinese Communist Party, which poses a greater threat.
Trade, human rights, Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, and the status of Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own, have all contributed to the recent deterioration of relations between Europe and China.
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, they became even more tense, with some European leaders arguing that Beijing should put more pressure on Moscow to put an end to the war.
However, according to four European diplomats and officials from major Western cities who wished to remain anonymous in order to speak freely, their nations do not want to engage in direct conflict with China.
One of the top European officials stated, “We don’t want to be dragged into the foreign policy toward China which the new American administration will be engaged in.” America is an ally and friend of ours. But when it comes to China, we have our own foreign policy and economic stance.
Keir Starmer became the first British prime minister to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in person at the Group of 20 summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro on Monday.
Xi stated that the two nations had a great deal of potential for collaboration, while Starmer advocated for steady, long-lasting ties between them. Starmer was chastised by British lawmakers for failing to publicly denounce the prison sentences given this week to 45 pro-democracy figures in the Chinese territory of Hong Kong and the ongoing trial of British national Jimmy Lai, a pro-democracy media tycoon, despite telling reporters he had a candid conversation with Xi about issues where China and Britain disagree.
On the margins of the G20 summit, Xi also met with Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the crisis in Ukraine and EU tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.
According to Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, a second Trump term might be advantageous for Europe in certain respects since, in contrast to President Joe Biden, he wouldn’t be particularly concerned with mobilizing American friends against China.
At a gathering organized by the University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Contemporary China and the World on Monday, Wu stated that this will allow Europeans greater flexibility in handling their relations with China.
In an attempt to deepen relations, he added, a number of European presidents and other political people have already started traveling to Beijing in recent months.
Additionally, Chinese authorities have hinted that this would present a chance for better ties with Europe.
China does not want to see Europe take sides and start a bloc conflict, but it does welcome Europe’s increased involvement in international issues. This month, the South China Morning Post reported Cao Lei, the deputy chief of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s European relations division.
Russian threat
Moscow, not Beijing, is seen by many Europeans as the immediate threat. They believe that as Xi grows impatient with a battle he did not anticipate would last nearly three years, China might assist in applying pressure on Russia about Ukraine.
Although China has never publicly denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a senior European diplomat claimed that China has assisted in various ways to keep Moscow in check.
According to the diplomat, they have been adamant with Russia that they will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
The ambassador went on to say that China is also worried about the deepening security connections between North Korea and Russia following their June signing of a comprehensive strategic agreement.
According to the United States and others, Kim Jong Un, the leader of the covert communist state, has deployed thousands of men to fight for Russia in Ukraine in exchange for technical support for his ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
According to the diplomat, China does not desire a more powerful North Korean military. Therefore, I anticipate that this will be one of the topics we can discuss seriously with the Chinese.
Moscow will be the wild card in international efforts to put a stop to the fighting in Ukraine, according to another European diplomat.
The Ukrainians’ need for it is evident, and the Europeans have stated that they would not provide funding for this massive and never-ending conflict. Understanding what Putin stands to gain is more difficult.
Russia’s military superiority may persuade Putin that fighting is a better option than settling, despite Moscow’s indications that it is amenable to negotiations. However, European governments that have given Ukraine tens of billions of dollars in military and other aid are feeling the effects.
The EU official claimed that the pay, pay, pay approach was ineffective. All Europe wants now is for the conflict to end.
However, it is also frantic to avoid giving up.
Another European official stated that the EU will support Ukraine through to the end and that it will continue to maintain that Ukraine will negotiate when Ukraine wants to.
Jennifer Jett reported from Hong Kong, while Keir Simmons reported from Dubai.
Note: Thank you for visiting our website! We strive to keep you informed with the latest updates based on expected timelines, although please note that we are not affiliated with any official bodies. Our team is committed to ensuring accuracy and transparency in our reporting, verifying all information before publication. We aim to bring you reliable news, and if you have any questions or concerns about our content, feel free to reach out to us via email. We appreciate your trust and support!