Washington U.S.-China relations are expected to be one of the biggest foreign policy issues facing the next government when President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office next year.
The two countries have had a tense relationship in recent years, with politicians from both parties taking a more aggressive stand against Beijing. The amount to which Trump keeps his promise to impose hefty tariffs on China and the degree to which he is swayed by advisors who believe that the United States should challenge China on issues other than trade will determine the future course of that relationship, according to experts.
Tariffs 2.0
Trump already shook international markets this week when he said that, in addition to higher tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, he would impose a 10% duty on Chinese imports at the start of his time in office. He proposed slapping at least 60% tariffs on China during the campaign, which some economists have said might result in higher pricing for American consumers.
Josh Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, stated that high tariffs may definitely scare investors and have a significant effect on the stock market.
In a similar vein to Trump’s first term, when Washington and Beijing placed a series of retaliatory tariffs on one another, tariffs may also spark a new trade war with China, according to experts.
According to Kurlantzick, the United States would impose tariffs, and China would follow suit in a number of areas that are significant to Republican voters.
Jamieson Greer, who assisted in enacting China tariffs during Trump’s first term as chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, the then-U.S. trade representative, was named Trump’s choice for U.S. trade representative on Tuesday.
Analysts cautioned that tariff effects might extend beyond the economy and have an impact on matters of national security and health.
Michael O. Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that high tariffs might make Beijing reluctant to work with the United States on cooperative concerns, such halting the production of fentanyl precursor chemicals.
According to O Hanlon, the possibility of the Chinese wishing to collaborate in other areas of the partnership drastically decreases if they are subjected to 60% tariffs overall.
Liu Pengyus, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy, responded to Trump’s tariff announcement on Monday by saying that no one will prevail in a trade war.
This month, Chinese President Xi Jinping informed President Joe Biden that he was prepared to collaborate with the incoming Trump administration and expressed his hope for a long-lasting and positive partnership. However, he highlighted China’s four red lines in U.S. relations—Taiwan, advancing democracy and human rights, working to overthrow the ruling Chinese Communist Party, and limiting China’s development—in a message that appeared to be directed at Trump.
Liu cited remarks made this month by Chinese ambassador to the United States Xie Feng, who stated that China has no intention of surpassing or replacing the United States, when asked about the future of U.S.-China relations.
According to the transcript from the embassy, Xie stated, “We hope the U.S. side will also have no intention to contain or suppress China.”
According to Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, the first half of next year will be critical in determining the direction of U.S.-China ties. Citing what Trump says is a close relationship with the Chinese leader, he added that Trump and Xi should try to meet as soon as feasible.
When Trump left office four years ago, China was a different country. Even though Xi, who started a historic third term in office last year, has further solidified his hold on power, his main priority will be to handle the economic slowdown, which will only worsen due to global uncertainty.
However, in order to become less dependent on the United States, its largest export market, China has also diversified its trading partnerships and made notable technological advancements in important areas like electric vehicles.
Scott Kennedy, a China specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, told NBC News last week during a visit to Beijing that Chinese officials appear willing to cooperate with the Trump administration to find a way out of the situation before it gets out of hand.
However, he warned that Beijing would make things difficult for the United States as well if Trump were to apply excessively high tariffs or take other actions.
This might include limitations on rare earths and other vital Chinese exports, investigations into American businesses doing business in China, retaliatory taxes on agricultural and other American goods, or devaluation of the yuan to harm U.S. commerce.
Trump was elected “to stand up to China, enforce tariffs on Chinese goods, and Make America Strong Again,” according to Karoline Leavitt, the incoming press secretary for the White House. He’ll deliver.
A hawkish Trump team
The extent to which Trump will be impacted by his advisors is uncertain. Several of his current selections are ardent opponents of China, such as Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., for national security advisor; Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., for secretary of state; and Pete Hegseth, R-Fla., for secretary of defense.
Rubio is himself sanctioned by the Chinese government, which would be unprecedented for a secretary of state if approved. Rubio supported legislation enabling sanctions on officials accused of violating human rights in the Chinese regions of Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
Rubio is known for his strong opposition to Beijing’s human rights abuses, so his selection by Trump has given pro-democracy communities in China and the diaspora some confidence, according to a Tuesday article in The Diplomat by Yaqiu Wang, the research director for China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan at the Washington think tank Freedom House.
Hegseth, a host on Fox News, has stated that China wants to dominate the world, while Waltz, who does not require Senate confirmation, has urged the United States to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, alleging violations of human rights.
According to Dan Blumenthal, a senior scholar at the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute, Rubio and Waltz have a very serious and sober understanding of the issues that lie ahead with regard to China, and I believe they will serve President Trump very well on that front.
However, there are also significant differences between Trump and his advisers over China, such as whether to outlaw the Chinese-owned app TikTok, which Trump formerly backed until changing his mind this year.
On Taiwan, the democratic island that Beijing claims as its own, they can also differ. By claiming that Taiwan doesn’t pay enough for its defense and accusing the island of stealing business from the United States with its semiconductor industry, Trump has unsettled Taiwanese authorities.
According to experts, Trump’s approach to China and Taiwan may be more pragmatic than that of his aides, who often take a more ideological stance.
According to Wu, Trump is still hoping for perks and concessions from China. However, they just wish to encourage decoupling for those individuals. Their only goals are to defeat and contain China, as well as to incite conflict with it.
Others in Trump’s inner circle, like Tesla owner Elon Musk, who has substantial commercial interests in China and frequently meets with top Chinese officials, may be sought after by Chinese authorities seeking more amiable middlemen.
Kennedy stated that there is a great deal of hope that he can serve as a mediator and maintain peace, but I’m not sure if it is more wishful thinking than a sober analysis.
Janis Mackey Frayer reported from Beijing, Jennifer Jett from Hong Kong, and Megan Lebowitz from Washington.
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