The Summary
- The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Saturday.
- Its pattern of activity surprised forecasters: The season got busy early and produced strong, late storms, but what is usually considered the peak period was quiet.
- Climate change most likely made the observed storms more severe.
Forecasters are assessing the many surprises of a peculiar, destructive hurricane season that officially ends on Saturday.
Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in forecasting Atlantic hurricanes, stated, “Every year there are one or two things that make me scratch my head, and this year I was doing more head-scratching than normal.”
As early as April, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its highest-ever forecast, and most forecasters projected a hyperactive hurricane season.
Although it was still a very active and above-normal season, the final total of 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes created was at the lower half of the range most forecasters anticipated.
The peculiar manner the season unfolded caught researchers off guard. When Hurricane Beryl became the first Category 5 storm to hit the Atlantic Ocean in June, it got off to a great start. However, everything was peaceful from the middle of August to the beginning of September. The season typically peaks around September 10 at that time. However, for the first time since 1968, not a single named storm formed during those weeks.
Storm activity sprang back to life when hurricanes Helen and Milton struck, causing billions of dollars in damage, just when scientists thought their predictions were going to be busts.
According to Klotzbach, it completely upended your typical seasonal cycle. What caught my attention was that it seemed to flip a switch, turning it entirely on and off. From nothing, it became Milton, Helene, and a series of storms in the east Atlantic.
In order to better understand the components that contribute to hurricanes and enhance future forecasts, researchers are investigating what caused the odd pattern.
Record-high Atlantic ocean temperatures and the possibility of La Ni a, a natural pattern of oscillation, were the reasons why scientists forecast a busy, hazardous hurricane season this spring. Hurricanes are fueled by ocean heat, which can also hasten their intensification. Hurricanes are linked to La Niña because it frequently reduces atmospheric stability.
According to Klotzbach, we initially believed it would be the busiest season ever.
La Ni a did not develop substantially, despite North Atlantic ocean temperatures remaining at or close to record highs, according to Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a part of the National Weather Service.
The unexpected dip in activity was probably caused by a combination of other reasons as well.
Africa’s tropical monsoon season, which brings moisture to the Sahel, is responsible for about 60% of storm formation. However, the monsoon formed in a different place this year.
According to Rosencrans, the monsoon was so severe that it reached areas that hadn’t seen rain in forty-five years. The modification slowed the formation of tropical storms.
According to Rosencrans, a different climatic pattern known as the Madden Julian oscillation—a cluster of storms that moves close to the equator—probably also played a role, delaying storm development in early September and subsequently enabling hurricanes to make landfall later in the month.
Using climate and weather models, researchers will spend the winter determining which elements had the greatest impact.
According to him, it’s a chance to study, examine the system, and learn something new from the Earth.
Despite the tropical storm break in the middle of the season, 2024 broke a number of records. According to an analysis provided by Klotzbach, five hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States, tying many years for the second most in history.
The most powerful hurricane to ever hit Florida’s Big Bend was Helene. And following Sept. 25, the Atlantic had the highest number of storms in history—seven.
Hurricane Milton produced scores of tornadoes and established a record for tornado warnings in Florida.
Climate change may have made Helene and Milton worse, according to research. Both hurricanes had rapid intensification, which is characterized by a sustained increase in wind speed of at least 35 mph over a 24-hour period. As global temperatures rise, the trend has become increasingly widespread.
Furthermore, researchers looking at how climate change affects weather have discovered that rainfall during one-day occurrences like Milton has increased by 20% to 30% as a result of climate change. The World Weather Attribution project’s experts also concluded that the impact of climate change was probably responsible for Milton’s wind speeds, which were 10% higher. The team’s findings for Hurricane Helene were comparable.
All 11 Atlantic storms this year were enhanced by an extra 9 to 28 mph due to human-caused global warming, mostly because of record warmth in the ocean, according to a research released by Climate Central, a nonprofit that monitors climate trends.
Research, according to Rosencrans, typically does not indicate that the number of designated storms—those with winds of 39 mph or higher—will vary as a result of climate change. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that a higher percentage of named storms will develop into hurricanes, with a higher percentage of those hurricanes reaching Category 4 or 5. This year, that was accurate.
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