The cause of the still-raging PalisadesFires can be found on a hilltop covered in vegetation, where the fire started soon after 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday.
Although experts say it’s simple to rule out lightning, a typical source of wildfires, fire investigators are still trying to figure out what started the fire. This week, there were no storms in the area. Another possible explanation is ruled out because there don’t seem to be any transformers or power wires in the vicinity of the Temescal Ridge Trail.
Stay tuned for real-time updates.
People are the primary cause of the majority of wildfires. But was arson the cause? Although there was a possibility, four experts NBC News spoke with said the fires were more likely to have been unintentionally started.
According to former Los Angeles Fire Department battalion chief Rick Crawford, this is what we refer to as impassable, tough terrain. Typically, arsonists won’t trek through woods and brush 500 feet from a trailhead, start a fire, and then go.
There are frequent fires in the forested areas on the outskirts of Los Angeles, many of which are inadvertently started by homeless individuals. Because there are rarely strong winds, the fires hardly ever spread into a deadly conflagration. The fast-moving fires that have engulfed vast areas of Los Angeles this week were made possible by a combination of fierce winds and a dry terrain.
According to Scott Fischer, a retired federal law enforcement arson investigator, you don’t need a group of arsonists to go out there and ignite fires because nature will take care of that for you.
He went on to say that while there are arsonists in the world, is there a group of them circling Los Angeles at the moment? Not likely.
Nonetheless, copycat arson is a recognized occurrence. According to the experts, it wouldn’t surprise them if one of the smaller fires that started following the Palisades fire was started on purpose.
According to Terry Taylor, a veteran wildland fire investigator who is currently an instructor, “large fire events like the one that is occurring in Los Angeles can sometimes inspire people to go out and light a fire.” Copying is what it is. It does occur occasionally.
According to Taylor and the other experts, it is unlikely that those answers will be available anytime soon because determining arson usually necessitates a thorough investigation.
Eaton Fire
According to experts, the Eaton Fire, which is the second largest to cause damage in Los Angeles, was not likely started by an arsonist. East of Altadena, where a network of high-voltage transmission lines looms overhead, it exploded Tuesday night.
According to the fire specialists, electricity wires were their first consideration given the location and the weather. The wires may slap together due to whipping winds, releasing tiny balls of extremely hot molten metal.
According to Ed Nordskog, a veteran detective with the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department who devoted his career to pursuing arsonists, if the ground is really dry and the wind is blowing, you have a fire.
However, that is only one possible situation. According to Nordskog, it might possibly have been caused by someone using a lawnmower, a car, or a camping stove that threw a hot spark into dry grass.
According to Nordskog, there is little chance that it was purposefully set.
According to him, these fires are typically not arson. There is no evidence that winds can attract arsonists.
Inch by inch
According to experts, determining the origin of a fire is an extremely difficult and specialized task.
Determining its origin is the first step. Important hints can be found in things like burn patterns and charred debris.
The process then moves on to its most intricate and time-consuming phase. In order to find footprints or other clues, the detectives may practically crawl about on their hands and knees while laying up a grid at the site, usually using string.
To aid in their search, the investigators frequently utilize binoculars, magnifying glasses, and metal detectors.
According to Nordskog, it will take hours and they will proceed inch by inch. It’s not enjoyable.
To find the little, melted fragments of metal that would have been released by electricity lines if they collided, investigators in the Eaton Fire case are probably going to utilize magnets. However, according to Nordskog, the presence of the metal does not always mean that’s how the fire began.
“You still need to determine whether the spark from the power lines was caused by something that was already burning or what caused the fire,” he said. An investigation involves a lot of things and numerous variables. Anyone who immediately tells you what started the fire must have witnessed it.
The investigators must then try to ascertain if the fire was the consequence of an accident, carelessness, or an intentional act if they discover proof that a person was responsible.
A climatology professor at the University of California, Merced named John Abatzoglou looked over 30 years’ worth of Los Angeles County government fire occurrence data. It revealed that accidents involving cars and other equipment were the leading causes of wildfires between 1992 and 2020.
In an email, he stated that over 95% of these fires are caused by human activity. The majority of fires caused by humans are unintentional, while arson is one of the causes.
The best players out there
When a group of individuals in Woodland Hills arrested a man they believed to be responsible for starting a trash fire on Thursday, the idea of arsonists destroying Los Angeles gathered momentum on social media. Although the individual was taken into custody, police officials stated on Friday that there was not probable cause to prosecute him with arson. Instead, a criminal probation violation led to his imprisonment.
Four fires have burnt in Los Angeles in addition to the Palisades and Eaton fires. The causes are still being looked into.
To find out what caused the fires, a law enforcement task group has been established. The local agencies engaged, including Cal Fire, the Los Angeles Police Department, the Los Angeles Fire Department, and the County Sheriff’s Department, are regarded as some of the best in the nation. The investigation is being led by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives.
“Everything is absolutely on the table,” stated Robert Luna, the sheriff of Los Angeles County, during a press conference on Saturday.
Investigators may need to spend several days figuring out what caused the fires. According to the experts, it may take months or even years to decide if a fire that was caused by someone is illegal.
Since 16 people have died in the fire, the search for the causes is anticipated to take as long as necessary.
Former Los Angeles battalion chief Crawford stated, “You’re going to have the best players out there to be able to solve the problem.”