Democrats still face a difficult battle to seize control of the Senate in 2026, even though Republicans are defending a tiny majority.
To seize control of the Senate in two years, Democrats must gain a total of four seats. Even though there are 20 Republicans and 13 Democrats competing for reelection in the 2017 midterm elections, several of the Republicans are contesting in states that lean heavily Republican.
Two Democrats, Jon Ossoff of Georgia and Gary Peters of Michigan, are seeking reelection in states where President-elect Donald Trump won, while only one Republican senator, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, is running in a state that Vice President Kamala Harris won in November.
Compared to their previous campaigns in 2020, when they were competing in a year with a record-breaking turnout for the presidential election, this class of senators will be facing a different political landscape. Additionally, things might be considerably different now than they were in 2014, when a number of these Republicans were elected to the Senate in a red wave. Republicans may face more challenges in the 2026 elections because the president’s party has a poor midterm record.
Whether seasoned lawmakers like Sen. Mitch McConnell, the departing GOP leader, choose to retire is another element that might upend the Senate’s composition. Although McConnell, 82, has pledged to serve out his current term, he has not yet stated if he will seek for reelection in ruby-red Kentucky.
These are the main races to keep an eye on as the Senate election develops.
Top targets
The three senators running for reelection in states that supported the opposition party for president this year make form the core of the 2026 battleground map, making them prime targets going into the midterm elections.
The lone Republican senator from a state that Harris won in November is Collins. Despite Maine’s blue lean, Collins has made it clear that she plans to run for a sixth term and has shown to be a formidable opponent.
In 2020, Collins defeated Sara Gideon, the former speaker of the state House, by nine points, despite Joe Biden also winning the state by nine points. According to the Portland Press Herald, Democratic Governor Janet Mills has not ruled out running against Collins despite being unable to do it again owing to term limits.
The two Democrats running for reelection in states that Trump won in November, on the other hand, are on the opposing side.
Peters is no stranger to difficult races in Michigan, having served as the leader of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for two terms. After losing the state by over three points in 2020, Trump won it by one point in November. In that same year, Peters defeated now-GOP Rep. John James by over two points to win a second term.
Georgia, which Trump won by two points this year, is where Ossoff is vying for a second term. Ossoff won a hotly contested Senate runoff on Jan. 5, 2021, narrowly defeating then-GOP Sen. David Perdue, whohas been tapped to be Trump s ambassador to China.
Georgia GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who cannot run for governor again due to term limits, is a potential Senate candidate. Kemptold Fox Newslast month that he is focused on leading the Republican Governors Association but that he tries to keep all doors open.
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., is expected to be another top Democratic target, running for re-election in a perennial battleground state Trump won by 3 points. Tillis has won his two Senate races by less than 2 points each.
Outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Coopertold WSOC-TVthat a Senate run is on the table, but he has not yet decided if he ll jump into the race. Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel also told Bloomberg Government he islikely to formally announce a Senate run in February, after he did not seek re-election in his redrawn district.
Primary fights
Some Republicans could face primary fights against Trump-aligned challengers, as Trump s allies threaten to take on senators who do not support Trump s Cabinet picks or the president-elect s agenda.
Primary speculation is already swirling around Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst as she navigates the confirmation process for Trump s defense secretary pick, Pete Hegseth. And Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, also a Trump ally,has suggestedhe might challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn.
One Senate Republican has already drawn a primary challenger: two-term Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy. He is one of three GOP senators left in the chamber who voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.
Louisiana state Treasurer John Fleming, a former congressman who served in the first Trump administration,launched a challenge against Cassidyearlier this month, citing that impeachment vote to argue that Cassidy has failed the people of Louisiana.
Cassidy s main electoral challenge in the ruby-red state would be in a primary. And it remains to be seen whether Trump, who won Louisiana by 22 points in November, will try to take out Cassidy and boost a primary challenger.
Other battlegrounds
With Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina the only perennial battlegrounds hosting Senate races in 2026, both parties will have to reach deeper into the opposing party s territory to try and pick up more seats.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., told Fox News that Republicans could expand the map by targeting New Hampshire and Virginia.
Scott also said Republicans could look at New Mexico and Minnesota if you re stretching, noting Trump improved his margin in those states. Harris carried New Mexico by 6 points and Minnesota by 4 points this year.
Incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has yet to name a new DSCC chair, although Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y.,is expected to get the post, according to Axios.
But Democrats could take a look at Senate seats that they also contested in 2020, like Iowa or Texas. While Trump carried both states by around 13 points this year, he won them by single digits four years ago. Both Ernst and Cornyn won re-election in 2020 by 7 and 10 points respectively, but they could face a tougher political environment in a midterm election year.
Looming special elections
Trump s presidency is also set to cause two resignations in the Senate, which will be filled at first by gubernatorial appointments but then by special elections in 2026.
Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, will leave the Senate to become Trump s vice president, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has been tapped to be Trump s secretary of state.
Ohio GOP Gov. Mike DeWine will select someone to replace Vance in the Senate, and a special election will be held in 2026 to fill the final two years of Vance s term, with severalstatewide and other elected officialsamong the possible picks.
If Rubio is confirmed, GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis would also appoint a successor, and a 2026 special election would be held for the final two years of Rubio s term. DeSantis wrote ina post on Xin November that he had already received strong interest from several possible candidates, and he would likely make a decision in early January.
Both states have shifted significantly toward Republicans in recent elections, but Democrats could be eyeing recruits they think are capable of putting the states in play in what could be a more favorable Democratic year.
In Ohio, for example, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brownhas not ruled out a runfor Vance s seat after he lost re-election this year, whenhe ran ahead of Harris.
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