What the 2024 polls got right — and what they got wrong
Now that almost all of the ballots for the 2024 election have been counted, we can thoroughly assess how well the national and battleground polls performed this year.
The conclusion: Despite their flaws, they were more correct than incorrect, particularly in light of the difficulties and previous failures of the polling industry.
First, let's look at the presidential horse race results. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were equal at 49% each in the latest national NBC News poll, while the national RealClearPolitics average for the two-way race was 48.7% for Harris and 48.6% for Trump. Additionally, the New York Times averaged Trump at 48% and Harris at 49%.
As of right now, the actual outcome of the popular vote is as follows, albeit it may somewhat alter during the final ballot count: Harri...