The Chinese military has increased its provocative flights around Taiwan by 300% over the last five months, according to the commander of the U.S. Air Forces in the Indo-Pacific Command.
In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Gen. Kevin Schneider warned that People’s Liberation Air Force activities have increased dramatically since Taiwan’s new president was inaugurated in May.
“Whether it’s coming into the air defense identification zone or crossing the center line within the Taiwan Strait, since the inauguration we have seen a 300% increase in those air activities,” he said.
From May 2023 until November 2023, China violated Taiwan’s air defense identification zone 335 times, according to figures released by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense compiled by NBC News. During that same timeframe this year, China violated that same airspace at least 1,085 times, more than three times as many as the previous year.
During some months, the difference was even more pronounced. In July 2023, for example, 50 Chinese aircraft violated Taiwan’s air defense zone. In July 2024, 210 did, more than four times as many.
Schneider noted that the Chinese Air Force has maintained the increased activity level since Lai Ching-te was sworn in on May 20. Beijing,
which views
Lai a “separatist” and a “troublemaker,” claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, a view Lai and his government reject.
A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., defended the flights.
“The PLA’s relevant drills are a necessary and legitimate move to crack down on “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and their separatist activities and send a warning to external interference and provocations,” said Liu Pengyu. It is fully consistent with international law and common practices.
Schneider oversees more than 46,000 airmen in Japan, South Korea, Hawaii, Alaska and Guam. He said the biggest challenge he faces comes from Beijing, which is building a massive rocket force, an air force, a submarine force and a cyber force, and using these forces to intimidate other nations in the region.
“It’s the behaviors that have gone along with that,” he said, “it’s the bullying, the aggressiveness.”
“My assessment is it’s a pressurization campaign designed to win without fighting, and I think just to continue to impose costs, physical or otherwise, to present a fait accompli to the world,” he added. “Not just to Taiwan, but to the world that Beijing can accomplish their objectives, and they continue to ramp up their activities, military activities, in conjunction with diplomatic activities, informational activities, economic activities, to win without fighting.”
Will Trump defend Taiwan?
Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that he intends to unify Taiwan with mainland China and has steadily ramped up military pressure on democratically governed Taiwan. U.S. intelligence officials say Xi has directed his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
CIA Director William Burns has publicly said that does not mean Xi will invade in 2027, but “it’s a reminder of the seriousness of his focus and ambition.”
U.S. officials have pointed to 2027 as a possible inflection point for conflict between China and Taiwan, a year that now falls in President-elect Donald Trump’s second term in office.
Trump has not committed to defending Taiwan during a Chinese military invasion.
“Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he told Bloomberg Businessweek in July. “You know, we’re no different than an insurance company.”
While Trump has repeatedly characterized the relationship as transactional, some senior advisers in his first term were among the most strident supporters of Taiwan, revising the process for arms sales to Taiwan and increasing the sales during Trump’s administration, which also sent high-level officials to Taiwan. Both actions increased tensions between Washington and Beijing under President Trump.
It’s unclear how President-elect Trump will work with President Xi over the next four years. But the two have spoken since Trump won the 2024 election, according to the Chinese government, which quoted Xi as telling Trump that the two nations must find a way to get along.
A current U.S. official said the relationship between the two nations during President Joe Biden’s term in office was also marked by tensions but made progress in some areas in recent years.
“China for sure thought they’d be back into a much better relationship with the Biden administration, and have been sorely disappointed,” said a senior U.S. official who tracks Chinese politics.
Gen. Schneider said the timing for possible action in 2027 by
China is still unclear, but he warned that their behavior has grown more aggressive and that China is operating farther and farther away from mainland China, both in the air and at sea.
Their goal is to push the U.S. out of the region while building their military capabilities, which Schneider said Beijing learned from the U.S. military’s military operations in the Middle East.
“We had the ability to take our time, to bring our forces into the theater, to build up large bases, to build up our capability, and then at the time of our choosing, when we had the advantages of mass in place, was to be able to determine when we would go to conduct our operations,” he said. “I assess that Beijing has recognized that, and now that they are building this capability to prevent us from ever being able to do that and replicating it.”
Gen. Schneider said adversaries in the region could try to test a new Trump administration in its early days. “Regardless of which party wins, this is where the opportunist part comes in, that actors in the region may seek to challenge a new administration.”
“It’s something that we on the military side are ready for, and we continue to provide options back to our national leadership,” he said. “Either to prevent or to deal with someone that would provide a test for a new administration early in your career.”
Ultimately, Schneider added, the U.S. is still focused on preventing conflict in the region.
“We continue to deter effectively. And for over 80 years, the peace, the relative peace and stability of this region, has been unwritten by the presence of the United States military and that of our partners and allies, and we will continue to do that,” he said. “And if that peace, stability and security is unilaterally upended by anyone in the region, then we will react, and we will react with a network of allies and partners that is incredibly capable.”
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