The French government is in danger of collapsing, just as the Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris rises from the ashes.
While viewing the repaired Paris landmark that was destroyed by fire in 2019, President Emmanuel Macron put on a brave front. His administration celebrated the reconstruction as a testament to French resilience and solidarity.
However, an unexpected alliance of leftist and far-right opponents might collapse his shaky parliamentary coalition on Wednesday.
Finance Minister Antoine Armand told French television on Tuesday that the nation is at a turning moment and urged its leaders to avoid causing confusion.
It’s the most recent chapter in the political unrest sweeping France and Europe, where far-right populists and nationalists—many of whom are Donald Trump’s supporters—are taking advantage of public resentment over immigration and price increases to challenge established political parties.
Here’s what you should know:
Why the French furor?
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party have put forward a no-confidence motion against Macron’s center-right prime minister, Michel Barnier. A similar motion has also been filed by the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, setting up a debate and vote in the National Assembly that will begin at 4 p.m. local time (10 a.m. ET).
Macron appointed Barnier in September, and he told French TV on Tuesday that he might live. But he doesn’t think the math looks good.
There are more than 320 members of the far-right and leftist parties, and only 289 votes from the 577 parliamentarians will be required to remove him.
It would be the shortest period in French history if the administration were to fall.
According to Rainbow Murray, a professor at Queen Mary University of London who specializes in French politics, France today appears to be unmanageable. There is no assurance that a new government would do any better, even if this one fails and is replaced.
Barnier’s attempts to control France’s skyrocketing budget deficit are the primary point of contention. Barnier wants to reduce spending by 40 billion euros ($42 billion) and increase taxes by 20 billion euros after France spent billions during the pandemic.
The current estimate for France’s deficit is 6.1% of GDP, which is significantly higher than the 3% or less threshold set by the European Union. Markets have been alarmed by the impending political and economic crises, as evidenced by Monday’s temporary increase in French borrowing costs above Greek borrowing costs.
Barnier has informed MPs that he intends to utilize Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which is sometimes referred to as a “take it or leave it” ultimatum, in the absence of a majority in the lower house of parliament.
He can therefore enact laws without a vote, but his opponents have the option to table votes of no confidence against him if they so want, as they have this time.
A divided legislature
The only thing that kept Le Pen out of power after Macron shocked the world by calling for early parliamentary elections in June was the tactical cooperation of Macron’s centrists and their left-wing rivals.
As a result, the legislature was split between the far-right, center, and left, and none of them had enough authority to rule safely on their own.
According to Murray, these three political factions are unable to cooperate and have been unable to reach an agreement.
Macron chose Barnier, who was able to assemble enough conservatives and centrists to lead without an absolute majority, over the leftists, who gained the most seats without obtaining a majority.
Barnier has been able to cooperate with the far-right by making policy compromises on matters like immigration and crime, despite the furious left’s many votes against him. Le Pen, however, asserts that she will not cross the red lines of tax increases and budget cuts.
We asked her what aspects of Monday were non-negotiable for us. We take a forthright stance on politics. We stand up for the French people.
Macron, who is in charge of selecting prime ministers who must be authorized by parliament, is greatly inconvenienced by this. But he must make do with what he has because he cannot dissolve the house again until 2025.
He may attempt to reinstate Barnier, name a successor, or install an apolitical administration of technocrats, but all of these would be susceptible to overthrow by the far-right.
Douglas Webber, an emeritus professor at the Paris-based INSEAD business school, stated that Macron will face mounting pressure to step down if he is unable to form a cabinet with the backing of a majority in parliament.
Rise of the far right
The establishment of several Old World powers, including France, the second-largest economy in Europe, is bucking under the pressure of the far right.
Germany, the other superpower on the continent, is also in difficulty. Ahead of the February elections, the far-right Alternative for Germany is currently ranked second after its left-wing alliance fell apart in November.
Additionally, the extreme right has gained ground in Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, and other places. Trump’s election to a second term has been greeted by many of them, raising the possibility of a transatlantic alliance between these once-political-fringe groups.
The Franco-German engine, which is meant to keep the European Union running smoothly, is now derailed, leaving a hollow core in the center of Europe, according to Webber. At a very bad moment, there is a sort of void in the center of Europe.
When France’s next presidential election is held in 2027, the main prize will either be won or lost.
Term constraints prevent Macron from running again, therefore Le Pen is currently the bookmakers’ favorite. Her pending prosecution on charges of embezzling European Union funds, in which prosecutors are seeking a five-year suspension from public service, could be one wrinkle for her. She calls the accusations “outrageous” and refutes them.
According to Queen Mary’s Murray, that might disqualify her from the upcoming presidential election. Unless someone brings it up.
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