As she considers whether to back Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for defense secretary, Republican Sen. Joni Ernst encounters some intraparty strife in her home state of Iowa, which feeds rumors that she may be challenged from the right when she seeks reelection in 2026.
Ernst’s supporters are not concerned about a possible primary challenge, pointing out that she has solid conservative credentials and is still well-liked by Republicans in the state. Conversations with a dozen Iowa Republican leaders and strategists, however, showed that grassroots conservatives who want Republicans to support Trump’s Cabinet choices were angry with Ernst. Other Republicans, on the other hand, eye-rolled him, claiming that rank-and-file Republicans are not as upset about Ernst as some activists claim.
As Trump gets ready to return office with the GOP more securely in his grasp than ever, the episode highlights the stresses Republican members of Congress have endured over the Trump years and how they are intensifying. Trump’s tendency to seek retribution for perceived disloyalty is well known among elected officials, and activists can use high-profile incidents as leverage against those lawmakers.
All of this is taking place at a time when anti-establishment sentiment and voter ire have increased the threat of primaries for incumbent candidates.
Bob Vander Plaats, an evangelical power broker in Iowa, stated, “This is my problem: She’s not entirely supportive of President Trump and his agenda and the selection of his team.”
Vander Plaats, who supported Florida Governor Ron DeSantis rather than Trump prior to the Iowa GOP caucuses, stated that the people of Iowa, like the people of this country, felt as though they delivered a message to the nation with a resounding victory for President Trump. When you elect a president, you essentially expect that he will be able to put together his team to carry out his plan.
However, Story County GOP head and Mayor Brett Barker of Nevada, Iowa, stated that he thinks the resentment toward Ernst is fabricated.
Barker, who backed Nikki Haley before the GOP caucuses, stated, “I’ve spoken to a lot of voters in person, and the majority of them are not following the rage of the day on Twitter.”
The upcoming Senate vote on Hegseth’s appointment as defense secretary, however, might serve as fodder for a primary campaign against Ernst, according to Vander Plaats. Though conservative talk radio host Steve Deace recently hinted that he would enter the race, no well-known Republican has come forward to challenge Ernst, who is serving her second term.
However, Deace stated that he would require Trump’s backing.
Deace told NBC News that Donald Trump is the king of the Republican Party because he earned it and conquered it. Joni Ernst won’t remain a senator if he doesn’t want her to.
Trump hasn’t indicated that he would support Ernst’s opponent if she disagrees with his choice. Furthermore, any threats or talks of launching a primary campaign against Ernst in 2026 are premature, according to a person familiar with the Trump transition team’s perspective on her involvement in the confirmation process.
However, some of his supporters, like Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA, have stated that if senators like Ernst do not back Trump’s nominations, they ought to be challenged in the primary.
Ernst supporters have reacted negatively to those threats.
Gaslighting and attention-seeking are major factors in this. What can we say today to get clicks? Former Polk County GOP Chair Will Rogers stated, “Let’s attack a U.S. senator for not doing what we demand her to do right now at this exact second.”
Rogers noted that Joni Ernst was not elected to office by Charlie Kirk. Iowans did.
An Ernst representative stated in a statement that “Joni is honored to serve Iowans and remains focused on the reason they sent her to the Senate in the first place – to make the big spenders in Washington squeal.”
In the spotlight
Republicans in Iowa disagree about whether Ernst will eventually be challenged in a primary. However, because she is still in the public eye during Hegseth’s confirmation process, she has continued to attract attention.
Ernst has questioned a 2017 sexual assault accusation against Hegseth, but she has not stated how she will vote on the matter. (Hegseth has refuted any misconduct.)
Ernst said in a statement following a meeting with Hegseth, a Fox News presenter and former Army National Guard officer, on Monday that she valued his “responsiveness and respect for the process.” According to her, Hegseth promised to hire a senior officer who would put sexual assault prevention first and to conduct an audit of the Defense Department.
Ernst stated, “I look forward to a fair hearing based on the truth, not anonymous sources, as I support Pete through this process.”
However, in a state that Trump won by 13 points in November, that was insufficient to allay some of the grassroots fears.
Since her statement appeared to soften her position on Pete’s fight, I have not seen any of the fervor against her on the ground here fade,” Deace remarked.
At a recent gathering of three dozen members of the central committee, Gerald Retzlaff, the leader of the Jones County GOP, stated frustration with Ernst was expressed.
According to Retzlaff, there was some conversation regarding the frustration that was present. A number of the counties we are discussing are irritated. She must keep in mind the desires of her supporters back home.
According to Page County GOP leader Bryan Whipp, “there will definitely be more people that are against her, and there’s no doubt about that” if Ernst decides not to back Hegseth.
Across the board, primary challenges are increasing, and in 2022, seasoned Senator Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, attracted his first GOP opponent in forty years. Although Grassley won that primary with a resounding 72%, it was hardly the resounding victory he had experienced in primaries throughout his Senate career. In her primary for a second term in 2020, Ernst faced no opposition.
Other GOP leaders in Iowa contend the outrage has been overblown, even as Ernst fear grows in the state’s most MAGA-aligned counties.
The Ernst response, according to Iowa Republican strategist David Kochel, who has been friends with Ernst since college and has counseled her on past campaigns, is more prevalent online than in the state’s undulating plains.
He stated, “I think a lot of it is overblown, people pushing an agenda online.” I believe that because she has experienced sexual assault, she has questions.
Primary looming?
Senators who disagree with Trump’s nominations should run against primary opponents, according to some of his supporters.
Kirk from Turning Point USA posted on X this month without specifying his sources, claiming that Joni Ernst and Lindsay Graham are attempting to kill Pete Hegseth. The redline is Pete Hegseth. If you don’t support him, there will be primaries.
Elon Musk, a billionaire Trump supporter, has also threatened people who oppose Trump’s Cabinet picks. Although it wasn’t directed at Ernst explicitly, Musk’s warning has more weight because of his riches and track record of significant expenditures in support of Trump. According to recent campaign finance disclosures, Musk, the richest man in the world, spent almost a quarter of a billion dollars this year on organizations supporting Trump.
Trump has not threatened to back a primary run against her, Ernst recently told NBC News.
Ernst has stated that she plans to compete for a third term, and Deace is the only well-known Republican to yet to suggest that he might run against her in a primary.
Deace also hinted that Trump’s recent appointment of former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker as the United States ambassador to NATO would pose a serious threat. However, some Republicans in Iowa doubted Whitaker would challenge Ernst.
Retzlaff, the Jones County GOP chair, said the Ernst primary rumor mill is already spinning, with “two or three names” circulating. Even before the Hegseth confirmation vote, he said, a contender may step in.
Ernst’s detractors claim that their most recent criticism of her is related to her involvement in Hegseth’s nomination.
“What this has provided is rocket fuel to the simmering frustration and angst that was already there,” Deace said.
Some critics pointed to Ernst’s 2022 vote to approvethe Respect for Marriage Act, which codified federal protections for same-sex and interracial marriages, leadingseveral Iowa Republican county partiesto censure or condemn her. Ernstsaid at the timethat the bill “protects religious freedoms and will simply maintain the status quo in Iowa.”
Her votes onthe Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, a gun safety bill, and her opposition to banning transgender Americans from serving in the military have also drawn the ire of some Iowans.
But Ernst’s allies say she is a staunch conservative, and they pointed to her work to cut government spending, starting with a headline-grabbingcampaign adin 2014 that highlighted her experience castrating hogs and pledged to take on Washington politicians and “make em squeal.”
A decade on, Ernst s dedication to cutting government spending remains. She is the chair and founder of the new Senate DOGE Caucus, referring to the “Department of Government Efficiency,” which Trump has named Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead. Ernst recentlyreleased a reportsuggesting federal employees have abused work-from-home policies and detailing new ways to cut federal government spending.
No one should attempt to say that she is a RINO. That s beyond the pale, said David Oman, a GOP strategist and former Iowa GOP co-chair, who was Ernst s finance chair in 2014, using the acronym for Republican in Name Only.
Are there some people who have been disappointed because she doesn t have a perfect MAGA scorecard? Yes, Oman added later. Does it rise to the level of a primary challenge that would cost tens of millions of dollars, Republicans fighting Republicans? I doubt it.
Kochel, Ernst’s friend and adviser, pointed to Grassley’s primary to argue no candidate is immune to a challenge from the right.
She ll win a primary and a general election. She s an outstanding candidate, but more importantly, she s a good person, a good leader for Iowa, Kochel said confidently.
Gary Leffler, a Trump superfan who recently announced his candidacy for Polk County GOP chair, urged patience, noting that Hegseth has yet to come up for a vote neither have other Trump priorities for his second term.
“We’re in the fifth inning of the game. … Let’s see what happens,” Leffler said.
Note: Every piece of content is rigorously reviewed by our team of experienced writers and editors to ensure its accuracy. Our writers use credible sources and adhere to strict fact-checking protocols to verify all claims and data before publication. If an error is identified, we promptly correct it and strive for transparency in all updates, feel free to reach out to us via email. We appreciate your trust and support!