London There are indications that Europe is bracing itself for the unimaginable everywhere.
In the event that Kremlin tanks attempt to cross, Lithuania intends to plant mines on its bridges to Russia, ready to explode. Russia’s so-called Shadow Fleet is being hunted by NATO ships in the neighboring Baltic Sea on suspicion of severing underwater communications cables. Additionally, there are plans to build a massive missile defense system over Europe that will resemble Israel’s Iron Dome but be specifically designed to shoot down rockets fired by Moscow.
People and governments in Europe fear that a resolute Kremlin would turn his soldiers against them after Ukraine. Many are also concerned that the next president, who is an isolationist, has implied that he might not defend America’s longstanding NATO allies in the event of a Russian attack.
Despite his criticism of Vladimir Putin this week, President Donald Trump has not indicated that he is changing his stance in any significant way. In an interview with Fox News on Thursday, he stated that Zelenskyy was battling a far larger force and that he shouldn’t have done so because a compromise might have been reached.
He just reiterated his recent demand that European partners contribute 5% of their GDP to defense, more than double the NATO standard, and bemoaned the fact that Washington has spent significantly more than Brussels on Ukraine’s defense. He said little new about NATO or Europe.
According to Trump, NATO must pay more. They are far more affected, which makes it absurd. Between us is an ocean.
The stakes are really high. Putin is allegedly planning for conflict with the West, according to statements made by European authorities on numerous occasions. For many, this is already the case, as countries, think tank researchers, and NATO itself accuse Moscow of hybrid warfare actions ranging from attempting to use firebombs to crash airplanes to meddling in elections.
According to retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who served as the U.S. Army’s commander in Europe from 2014 until late 2017, the Europeans are taking this extremely seriously.
Because they reside there, Eastern European nations closer to the Russian border are especially aware that this is true, Hodges continued. Only those who reside far from the bear, in Western Europe or the United States, say, “Come on, this is not going to happen.”
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) fundamental principle is that allies will protect any other member who is being attacked. This Article 5 pledge has only been activated once, following 9/11, when Europe joined the United States in a show of unity by assisting with air patrols. That stipulation’s primary message is that a nation that attacks Europe will also be at war with Washington; Russia is the target audience.
Trump, meanwhile, has stated time and time again that he will disregard Europe’s distress call.
A complacent continent has depended on Washington’s security for far too long, according to many in Europe’s corridors of power. Longtime supporter of European independence, French President Emmanuel Macron, stated Monday that Trump’s second term should be a “wake-up call” for the continent.
Russia is an existential threat to our security today, tomorrow, and as long as we underinvest in our defense, EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas said during a defense conference on Wednesday, echoing Trump’s assessment of European spending.
Still, a lot of these critics are concerned.
“There was never any question about American commitment, even though every president has complained that European countries don’t do enough,” Hodges said. This is a major source of anxiety.
Trump and important officials of his incoming administration have pledged to put an immediate end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which is probably unattainable without Kyiv making significant territorial concessions. Critics claim that effectively handing Russia a victory would send a message to the Kremlin that aggression is rewarded and that the West is unwilling to step in.
In a speech in November, German foreign intelligence chief Bruno Kahl claimed that Russia was getting ready for conflict with the West.
Experts and government representatives have long charged Moscow with launching cyberattacks, disseminating false material, and employing any other tactics to sway elections in democracies.
Moscow, however, disputes it. There is broad consensus among Western officials and academics that this effort appears to be growing.
Authorities in Finland detained an oil ship last month on suspicion of cutting internet and power connections underwater. That was one of several occurrences that led NATO to increase maritime patrols and launch Operation Baltic Sentry.
Western officials, however, claimed that Russia was behind the July shipment of two incendiary devices to DHL logistics facilities in Germany and the UK as part of a larger sabotage effort to potentially ignite fires on planes headed for North America.
With the majority of its major countries now meeting the NATO target of 2% of GDP allocated to defense, Europe has responded by reversing decades of military underfunding. After Russia took Crimea in 2014, spending began to rise, though Trump is often credited with speeding it up.
Lithuania plans to invest 5% to 6% of its GDP in defense over the next several years, according to a statement made on Wednesday by Andrius Kubilius, the European Union’s defense commissioner.
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has further narrowed people’s focus.
The European Union set aside 500 million euros, or about $515 million, in March to double the production of shell ammunition to 2 million units annually. Additionally, 22 nations have joined the European Sky Shield Initiative, a missile defense system aimed at defending the continent against Russian strikes.
When asked if Europe was getting ready for a worst-case scenario of conflict with Russia, a bloc official told NBC News via email that the continent must be ready for the most extreme military contingencies. In short, we need to spend more to avoid war. It will cost us more if we wait longer.
The spokeswoman only mentioned the Russian president, whose war in Ukraine they claimed challenges the international rules-based order itself, when asked if Trump’s hint that he might not defend Europe as effectively as Putin was the reason for that change.
Ukraine has responded to President Trump’s reelection and inauguration with meticulous diplomacy. The nation’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claimed in a post on X on the day of the inauguration that Trump “is always decisive” and that his second term was a chance to “achieve a long-term and just peace.”
Vytis Jurkonis, the head of the Lithuanian branch of the global pro-democracy organization Freedom House, stated that regardless of the cause, the attitude has drastically altered.
Jurkonis, who also teaches politics at Vilnius University in Lithuania, stated that we must make it abundantly evident to the Kremlin that any attack against a NATO member will be costly and have repercussions.
Situated on a tiny peninsula between the Baltic Sea, the heavily military Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and mainland Russia, the Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are especially vulnerable.
These now-Westernized nations are only now building the Baltic Defense Line, a border that stretches hundreds of miles and is lined with pillboxes and anti-tank trenches after being occupied by the Soviet Union for decades. According to Lithuania’s military ministry, it has already bought warehouses filled with concrete pyramids that resemble dragon’s teeth and are intended to mine its bridges to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, as reported by NBC News.
Recently, Lithuania announced that it would increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, the highest level in NATO and significantly higher than Washington’s 3.4%. With the Kremlin essentially reorganizing its economy on a war footing and allocating at least 6.2% of its inflation-affected budget to its military, it is still less than Russia.
In contrast, Norway, which distributes its emergency readiness handbook to all of its inhabitants, has updated it to include information on how much food, water, and other supplies to stockpile in case of conflict. The most recent edition of the 20-page booklet, which has historically concentrated on accidents and severe weather, cautions that we live in a world that is becoming more tumultuous and that you might be told to seek refuge in the case of a war.
In the meantime, Swedish church leaders, acting on orders from the country’s military, have started searching for additional graveyard space in case such a battle ever makes it to their territory. Additionally, Germany pledged about 100 million euros to replace the public sirens that had been taken out after the fall of the Iron Curtain.
Numerous observers, however, feel that Europe is not doing nearly enough.
According to Keir Giles, a top defense expert at London’s Chatham House think tank, Western European nations like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have only made modest percentage increases to their defense budgets, which is nothing compared to the revolutionary investment in Eastern Europe.
For Giles, who wrote the book Who Will Protect Europe? An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent, the problem is that countries further away are still pretending that war is something that happens to other people.
Furthermore, the political climate makes attempts even more difficult. Europe s mainstream parties are being challenged by populists, who often mix their vehement opposition to immigration with a softer and sometimes even friendly stance toward Russia.
That s a problem for those who argueRussia s war on Europe has already begun.
Anybody who isn t worried hasn t been paying attention, said Giles.