The stakes for Sunday’s Week 13 game between Tampa Bay and Carolina were fairly low based just on the standings. The records of both teams were losing.
However, few games this season have provided a greater perspective on one of the most important NFL questions: How patient should a team be with its young quarterback? This made the game much more interesting than it initially seemed.
Less than two seasons into his career, Bryce Young has already gone from being selected first overall in the draft to being benched after just eighteen games. Sunday’s fourth quarter saw the Panthers take a 23–20 lead with seconds remaining, and Young used his legs and arm to lead the team on what looked to be a game-winning drive.
After that, Baker Mayfield, the quarterback for Tampa Bay, began his own heroics by guiding the Buccaneers to a draw and then a victory in overtime. The resemblance between him and Young was not the first time. Heisman Trophy winner and first overall pick Mayfield, like Young, went from being a Cleveland team mainstay to a castoff in a flash.
And both are now flourishing after being given second chances, which is something that few anticipated at different stages of their careers.
Speaking from personal experience with the league’s highs and lows, Mayfield told reporters on Sunday that perseverance and overcoming setbacks ultimately make you stronger. A significant component of that, along with the positive and confident element, is knowing who he is now working with. [Young] is capable of doing anything he desires.
The position has never been more prized or more expensive, with quarterback salaries reaching up to $60 million annually and laxer regulations permitting more passing. Even for first-round draft picks and other prospects, that combination has created a limited leash.
The stakes are high.
A club can be prepared for years of consistent success if they find a quarterback who works. (Just ask the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots.) Drafting someone who falls short of expectations might start a downward spiral that gets worse with time. Ask Cleveland, which has only managed one playoff victory in the last 25 years and has started 39 different quarterbacks since 1999.
Mayfield, who Cleveland valued so highly that it selected him with the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2018, was the quarterback in that one Browns playoff game. However, Mayfield was moved to make room for Deshaun Watson, his replacement, just two seasons after he helped the Browns win the playoffs at Pittsburgh. Cleveland’s choice to move on was never questioned, even after Mayfield suffered so much at his next stop, Carolina, that he was cut.
That is no longer the case.
Mayfield’s 2022 performance with the Los Angeles Rams earned him a one-year contract with Tampa Bay, and he has had a comeback with the Buccaneers, his fourth career stop. He recorded career-high completion %, quarterback rating, and yards per game, won another postseason game, and utilized a 2023 Pro Bowl season to secure a three-year, $100 million contract extension. While Cleveland’s acquisition of Watson has gone so badly that the team is now in the midst of an existential hunt for a quarterback, the turnaround has raised questions in Cleveland about whether the Browns should regret moving on from him after four seasons.
In order to prevent the regret of moving on too soon from quarterbacks who go on to succeed elsewhere, could his example lead to a phenomenon known as the Mayfield Effect, where organizations are more patient when evaluating their young quarterbacks?
Most likely not, according to an NFL talent evaluation executive who spoke candidly on condition of anonymity. A prospective franchise quarterback will be the subject of intense scrutiny by teams.
Translation: A team is likely to go for the second choice if their starting quarterback hasn’t emerged as a legitimate alternative and there is a possibility to choose a highly sought-after quarterback.
However, it’s noteworthy—and possibly not a coincidence—that quarterbacks in the NFL have been given second or third opportunities this season.
Quarterback Anthony Richardson, who was benched in October after ten starts into his career and was selected three choices after Young in 2023, helped Indianapolis secure a last-second victory in New England in Week 13 alone. However, the Colts soon changed their mind and put him back in as their starting quarterback. On Sunday, Richardson ran in the game-winning two-point convert after throwing for a touchdown with 12 seconds remaining in his third game back as a starter.
Sam Darnold, a former top 10 pick who had previously let the Panthers and New York Jets down, tossed the game-winning touchdown with one minute remaining, boosting the Vikings to 10-2 in Minnesota. With five games left, Darnold has already passed for 23 touchdowns, more than he had in his first six seasons.
And after throwing for 414 yards on Sunday against Cincinnati, the second-highest total of his career, Pittsburgh climbed to 5-1 with Wilson starting. The former Super Bowl winner Wilson signed a contract with Pittsburgh for the league minimum less than a year ago after being benched by the Denver Broncos. The Steelers currently have the third-best AFC record.
Young was benched by Carolina in September for the following reasons: According to ESPN, his 4-18 record was the poorest by a former #1 pick during the Super Bowl era. However, the Panthers also had good cause to reject trade offers for Young. Their coach, Dave Canales, who served as Tampa’s offensive coordinator during Mayfield’s 2023 comeback, stated that they firmly thought Young could grow into a franchise quarterback. Was a team just exercising due diligence, or was that the Mayfield effect?
In any case, since his comeback, Young has appeared potential and less like a project. He has thrown for six in his previous five games after throwing 11 touchdown passes in his first 20 games. Young threw for 298 yards against Tampa Bay, the second-most of his career. Mayfield was waiting for him at midfield to shake hands after the game.
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