On the first day of his president, Donald Trump has promised to start the biggest mass deportation operation in American history. According to one advisor, enforcement will start as soon as Trump hands over that Bible and takes the oath of office on Monday.
However, the size of that operation and its speed would depend in part on the administration’s ability to overcome certain obstacles, according to immigration experts. These include opposition from certain local law enforcement agencies and cities, a lack of funding and personnel for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, litigation from civil rights and advocacy organizations, and concerns about the cooperation of nations required to boost the number of removals.
An estimated 11 million persons in the US do not currently have legal status.
According to Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute’s U.S. Immigration Policy Program, deporting all undocumented immigrants will not be feasible, she told NBC News.
Data from the Department of Homeland Security shows that during Trump’s first presidency, illegal immigrants were deported around 1.2 million times. During his first and second terms, the Obama administration deported 2.9 million and 1.9 million illegal immigrants, respectively. Those who were deported more than once may be included in the numbers.
According to Bush-Joseph, one reason the first Trump administration didn’t achieve those levels was because of a decline in collaboration with state and local law enforcement, which was brought on by sanctuary policies and legislation in many situations. This time, numerous sheriffs and local law enforcement agencies have stated publicly that they will either support or oppose the plans for mass deportations.
She stated that she will keep an eye out for any possible widening gap between red and blue states and regions.
Democratic state and local leaders across have already pledged to oppose Trump’s intentions and, in certain instances, have approved laws designed to protect undocumented immigrants from his deportation attempts. As other conservative states have enacted anti-sanctuary laws, Texas has asserted its own law enforcement authority at the border and positioned itself as a major role in Trump’s immigration agenda.
According to the Immigrant Legal Resource Center, between 70% and 75% of ICE’s arrests in the US interior over the past ten years came from other law enforcement organizations, such as state and local jails and federal prisons.
According to Rick Su, a professor of law at the University of North Carolina, a large portion of Trump’s strategy may need to be coordinated with the states in order to succeed.
According to Trump officials, the incoming president is thinking about removing federal police money from law enforcement organizations who refuse to assist in deportations, and they will take on communities that oppose his intentions.
During his first term, Trump tried a similar approach but ran into serious legal issues. According to Su, it is still unclear what his administration can lawfully require of states and municipalities.
“Residents may start turning against these things pretty dramatically if the courts rule in favor of Trump’s ability to mobilize federal resources and push states and localities to comply,” he added.
According to Andrea Flores, vice president of immigration policy and campaigns at FWD.us, an apolitical group that promotes immigration reform, some locations may attempt to fully uphold their sanctuary status as Trump’s second administration progresses, while others may cooperate in cases that are considered to be of higher priority, such as those involving individuals with criminal histories or those who pose a threat to national security.
However, because they have had to offer their citizens a patchwork of protections, cities will remain a front-line defense, according to Flores, an immigration policy consultant to the Biden and Obama administrations.
Last month, Trump told NBC News that his administration will prioritize deporting criminals before growing its operations.
Legal action by civil rights and immigrant advocacy groups may also make it more difficult for the Trump administration to implement that strategy at the speed and scale he desires. The American Civil Liberties Union has stated that it is prepared to act as soon as Trump takes the oath of office, even though the precise legal tactics would depend on what Trump does and whether there are any possible civil rights concerns.
ICE budget shortfall
Even before the expenses of mass deportations, the $230 million ICE budget shortfall is another potential significant barrier, two U.S. officials aware with the amount exclusively told NBC News in December.
ICE is already running behind schedule. “It may take a while to ramp up unless and until Congress provides a significant amount of additional funding for the enforcement aspects of the mass deportation plans,” Bush-Joseph stated.
Although it is still uncertain when and how Congress will agree to funding, spending negotiations are scheduled to start in January, when Republicans hold a small majority in the House and control of the Senate and White House.
Regarding Trump’s first term, Su stated that despite his tough rhetoric, he didn’t significantly boost deportations. Funding and resources had a role in that.
The American Immigration Council, a nonprofit that advocates for immigrants and conducts immigration studies, estimates that Trump’s mass deportation proposal may cost more than $88 billion.Trump earlier stated to NBC News that his proposal for mass deportations had no cost.
Trump’s choice for border czar, Tom Homan, previously told NBC News that he would like at least 100,000 detention beds and that $86 billion would be a terrific place to start. There are currently about 34,000 in the United States.
Earlier this month, outgoing ICE Director P.J. Lechleitner told NBC News that the agency has one officer for every 7,000 cases, with roughly 8 million people on its nondetained docket. According to an ICE letter to Congress, as of September 2024, 435,719 of them are known to have a criminal history, with 13,099 having been convicted of homicide and 15,811 of sexual assault.
According to Lechleitner, ICE has long been understaffed and requires additional staff and funding.
Additionally, he stated that increasing the number of deportations would be impossible given ICE’s current resources.
Cooperation from other countries
Although Trump cannot deport everyone, Bush-Joseph stated that the administration might increase deportations during his term if Congress does approve a sizable increase of funds and permits the restrictive measures to take effect.
Bush and Flores:According to Joseph, the necessity of diplomatic ties with foreign nations is another obstacle to mass deportations because not all undocumented immigrants can be sent back to their home countries.
Bush-Joseph stated that it is a crucial component of this plan for mass deportations.
She claimed that the Biden administration made a determined effort to negotiate with other nations to gain more acceptance for the return of their citizens. This includes a historic deal with Mexico to repatriate citizens of third countries in exchange for the creation of legal avenues, like humanitarian parole procedures.
It’s unclear what other nations would want in return for or in exchange for taking their own nationals or third-country nationals during Trump’s administration, she said, adding that he has threatened to use tariffs to try to force them to return their citizens.
According to her, the majority of deportees come from Mexico and northern Central America because those nations welcome a lot of returns of their own citizens. However, the number of migrants from Cuba and Venezuela has significantly increased in recent years, and both nations do not accept the repatriation of their residents.
According to the experts, there are a few things that could help Trump carry out his goals to increase deportations, such as swiftly deporting more migrants who enter the country illegally by expanding expedited removal.
For undocumented immigrants apprehended within 14 days of their arrival and within 100 miles of a U.S. land border, the policy permitted authorities to employ an expedited removal procedure beginning in 2004.
Under Trump’s first presidency, the policy was widely extended to undocumented immigrants in the United States who were unable to provide proof of continuous presence for two years or longer.
Before it was finally permitted to take effect, the courts blocked that judgment. The policy was withdrawn by a Biden administration attorney.
With over 3.5 million pending immigration cases, Bush-Joseph stated, “I anticipate the Trump administration to once again expand expedited removal because that avoids the lengthy immigration court backlogs and delays.”
According to Bush-Joseph, recent precedent has restricted the capacity to sue, and the conservative-majority Supreme Court has supported the executive branch’s authority in immigration matters.
Courts must choose whether to stop a policy or allow it to remain in effect while the matter is being handled, even in cases involving significant litigation.