The 2025 Super Bowl will be decided in just a few hours when the Washington Commanders play the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC championship and the Kansas City Chiefs play the Buffalo Bills in the AFC championship. There are numerous plotlines throughout both matches.
In the postseason, will Josh All, the quarterback for the Bills, eventually surpass Patrick Mahomes? Can Eagles rushing back Saquon Barkley be stopped by the Commanders’ defensive capabilities? Will Jayden Daniels solidify his position as the sport’s next major star, or will his incredible debut season come to an end?
Ahead of Sunday’s conference final games, NBC News’ Rohan Nadkarni and Andrew Greif, along with NBC Sports’ Patrick Daugherty, respond to those queries and more.
Rank the four quarterbacks.
Nadkarni: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes
When it comes to doubting Mahomes, I would rather be behind the curve than ahead of it. I therefore have no doubt that I want Mahomes, despite his and the Chiefs’ comparatively lackluster offensive output this season during the most crucial moments of the game.
This season, Allen has excelled, particularly in terms of football protection. His plays without forced throws or poorly thought-out laterals were among of his best in the Bills’ victory over the Ravens. He’s my clear second choice when you combine his improved ability to avoid risks with his running and throwing prowess.
The interesting part is Daniels vs. Hurts. In general, I would pick the Eagles’ offensive, but quarterback vs. quarterback? I have greater faith in Daniels in situations that are purely passing, even if one of Daniels or Hurts needs to win a shootout.
Greif: Hurts, Allen, Mahomes, and Daniels
Daniels is having a one-heckof moment right now, not to be a prisoner of the moment. The Commanders rookie quarterback has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio, the second-highest percentage of passes completed, the fewest sacks taken, and the most yards thrown per game out of the four remaining quarterbacks. He is rated almost flawless on third and fourth downs by ESPN sQBR. Perhaps most significantly, Daniels is currently the player you least want to watch.
For the first time since he started six years ago, Mahomes’ statistical decline during the regular season—in which he recorded rating ratings below career average—has persisted in the postseason, as has the percentage of passes that ended in touchdowns and interceptions and fewer than 4,000 yards. However, if you think he won’t find a way to win, watch his improvised touchdown pass to Travis Kelce last week, which was thrown flawlessly through Houston’s zone as Mahomes was falling. Since 2019, Mahomes has won 11 of his last 12 home playoff games and his last six.
Allen is a versatile player that can adapt to any situation the Bills need to win, whether they are running or passing. First downs have been the outcome of half of his 18 carries in the postseason.
Daugherty: Hurts, Daniels, Allen, and Mahomes
Until proven differently, Mahomes is ranked first. Despite the Chiefs’ receiver deficit, Mahomes’ play has become more workmanlike rather than spectacular, but it is still incredibly successful at winning football games. At his best, not even Tom Brady was performing at this level. The Chiefs’ lack of big plays could potentially spell their death this season, but Mahomes’ influence will continue to be seen on every field for K.C.
Allen must come in second. In 2024, Allen became more like Mahomes by reducing his turnovers and long-range attempts and concentrating more on play-to-play efficiency. His first appearance in an AFC title game in four years is one of the outcomes thus far. With his efficiency dialed up to eleven, Allen has effectively become Cam Newton. He won’t be the cause of the Bills’ defeat. He might be the only factor in their victory.
Daniels is the third most well-known last words. Daniels is incredibly composed for a quarterback, and for a rookie, he exhibits extraordinary poise and skill. Daniels has supposedly converted 100 consecutive fourth downs while carrying the whole Commanders brand. This leads us to the rookie’s two primary issues: no one can stay this hot forever, and it’s all on him. The Commanders might still be ahead of schedule by a year. At this point, though, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if Daniels just keeps getting better and the Commanders win their first Lombardi Trophy since the internet.
Hurts comes last and grudgingly least; going into the divisional round, he already seemed to be at less than 100% health. He now appears to be closer to 50%. Hurts, who has struggled to have an impact downfield for the majority of the season, is now too much of a one-man show to win games by himself. He has a lot of help, which is the lovely thing about the Eagles. Compared to the other three quarterbacks on this list, he simply needs more of it at the moment.
Under-the-radar storyline
Nadkarni: The Commanders’ aggressiveness on the fourth down is almost invisible, but I believe their coaching approach has been spot-on throughout the postseason. Washington attempted four additional fourth-down conversions against the Detroit Lions in the divisional round after making five attempts in the wild-card round. Maintaining a daring fourth-down approach will be crucial if the Commanders are to pull off an upset on the road this week as a major underdog.
Additionally, it will be crucial while facing an Eagles side that prefers to play keepaway football. Time of possession can be quickly skewed by Philadelphia’s rushing attack. In order to prevent the Commanders from upsetting yet another squad, Washington must continue to be aggressive and maintain an additional drive or two.
Greif: Buffalo’s ability to hold onto the ball to an unprecedented degree gives them the best chance to end their three-game postseason losing run to Kansas City. According to NFL data, it is the first team in NFL history to go four straight postseason games dating back to the previous season without making a turnover. It also has a chance to become the first team in history to qualify for the Super Bowl while committing fewer than 10 turnovers during the season. It will have more chances to defeat the Chiefs in the end if it can play clean football.
Daugherty: Isiah Pacheco, the running back for the Chiefs from Kansas City, doesn’t seem to be fully recovered. For a team that is dedicated to playing in every game until it can return to free agency and the draft and fire more darts at their receiver corps, that is awful news.
The Chiefs will eventually need a big play from someone outside Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Out of the backfield, it doesn’t really look possible right now, and that might be too much for even the league’s finest player to overcome against a Bills club that won’t be able to provide the kind of charitable donations the Chiefs have grown accustomed to receiving from overwhelmed opponents this season.
Which non-QB (besides Saquon Barkley) will have the biggest impact this weekend?
Nadkarni: The defensive tackle for the Chiefs Despite not being the most well-known figure connected to the Kansas City dynasty, Chris Jones is a key component of the team’s overall success. Don’t be fooled by the absence of insurance ads or podcast snippets; Jones is just as crucial to the Chiefs’ success as the Mahomes-to-Kelce relationship.
Jones is ready for a spectacular game on Sunday against Buffalo. If Kansas City wants to move forward, they will need one from him at the very least. The Bills’ running success against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round was largely due to their incredibly strong offensive line. Jones will be involved in more than just slowing down the run. If he s able to generate pressure lined up over the middle, that could neutralize some of Allen s scrambling ability.
Greif: Philadelphia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Carter s third-down sack and fourth-down pressure of the Rams Matthew Stafford helped seal the Eagles victory in the divisional round, and he also has three passes defended in the postseason. Now, Carter faces a Commanders offensive line missing starting guard Sam Cosmi, who injured a knee last week. An Eagles victory hinges partly on getting to the Commanders’ Daniels, and if the Eagles can get pressure with just their defensive front, it will allow their linebackers to spy on Daniels or drop into coverage.
Daugherty: Kelce is always the response. He only needed the playoff lights to turn on to see himself in Hall of Fame shape. The question is if that will be enough for the Chiefs. Teams are resigned to Kelce moving the chains and soaking up looks in the red zone. The Bills can probably still win if it sonlyKelce trying to drag Mahomes along to a third straight Super Bowl victory.
Who makes the Super Bowl?
Nadkarni:Chiefs and Eagles. Mahomes stays the king of the AFC. And Philly s experience in big games finally catches up to the Commanders.
Greif: Philadelphia will beat Washington in the NFC because the Commanders defense has been leaky (allowing 25.5 points per game in the postseason, 9.5 more than Philadelphia), while the Eagles have ranked among the league s elite defenses all season; by one metric, they stand tied forthe league leadin allowing the lowest success rate.
Picking the AFC feels like splitting hairs. But until the Chiefs are knocked off in their quest for an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl title, Kansas City remains the choice to win in Vegas and in my estimation, too. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo s unit sacked Texans QB C.J. Stroud eight times in last week s divisional round and pressured him on half of his dropbacks, according to NFL s Next Gen Stats. Can it make life hard for Josh Allen, too?
Daugherty:I ve become something of a Chiefs dead-ender. Even at their lowest ebb last year, I remained confident of their Super Bowl favoritism. They re 16-1 in games where they ve tried this season. I just don t think it s their year. This could be the last opening the Chiefs ever leave for the Bills. I expect Allen and Co. to walk through it.
In the NFC, I believe the Commanders have finally met their match. You don t have to go too far back to find the last time Daniels torched Philly Dec. 22. But that was in Washington and mostly sans Hurts, who left the game early with a concussion. For as impressive as Washington has been and as banged up as Hurts has become, the Commanders simply can t compete with the Eagles on a 1-to-53 basis even if they own the No. 1 spot with Daniels. I like the Eagles to dictate the terms Tampa Bay and Detroit could not and for Philly to advance to face Buffalo in New Orleans.