As northern California and the Pacific Northwest began to feel the effects of a strong atmospheric river event, officials reported that thousands of households in Washington state lost power Tuesday and that several roadways were blocked by fallen wires or trees.
According to experts, the storm may deliver significant snowfall in the mountains and up to 15 inches of rain. According to the tracking website poweroutage.us, more than 80,000 households and businesses in Washington and more than 12,000 in Oregon were without power by 6 p.m. local time.
Connie Clarstrom, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Medford, Oregon, stated, “We are expecting near-hurricane-force winds near the coast with hurricane-force wind gusts over the capes and headlands.”
The Cascade mountains, which run down the West Coast’s spine, might be pounded by a whiteout blizzard, according to forecasters. Mount Shasta City in northern California may receive up to two feet of snow as a result of the storm. The city’s proximity to Interstate 5 may generate traffic jams.
In the meantime, gusts of wind might reach 90 mph at the 14,411-foot top of Mount Rainier in the state of Washington. According to the meteorological service, a 52 mph gust was recorded Tuesday night at Seattle Tacoma International Airport.
The so-called bomb cyclone, also known as bombogenesis, which occurs when a storm system quickly strengthens as air pressure decreases, is what is causing the intense winds. When a storm’s pressure decreases by 24 millibars in a 24-hour period, it is considered a bomb cyclone.
The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes director, Marty Ralph, stated that this one was expected to deepen, more like 60 millibars in a day, which is extremely rare and obscenely quick. It’s very intense.
An atmospheric river, a lengthy plume of moisture from the tropical Pacific, will be brought in by the bomb cyclone.
According to a 2022 study, atmospheric rivers can be the main sources of precipitation on the West Coast each year and, on average, generate more than $1.1 billion in flood damage annually.According to study, atmospheric rivers are responsible for about 84% of flood damage in Western states.
Scientists believe atmospheric rivers are being impacted by climate change. Storms can produce more severe precipitation when the atmosphere is warmer because it can absorb more water vapor.
“The warmer the air is, the more water vapor it can hold, and that’s more potential energy,” Ralph explained.
Nine atmospheric river storms pounded California during three weeks in late 2022 and early 2023, causing extensive flooding, landslides, downed trees, and wind damage.Moody’s RMS projected that the series of storms caused $5 billion to $7 billion in total economic losses in the United States.
This storm will probably bring most of the moisture to northern California.
“Strong and stalling is its primary characteristic. Over the course of three days, those two factors can result in 10 to 20 inches of rain,” Ralph stated.
From Tuesday morning through Saturday, flood watches have been in effect for Shasta County, western Colusa County, and the northern and central Sacramento Valley.
According to Ralph, in just two or three days, the Russian River might get almost 10 inches of precipitation, or 20% of its yearly average. Along the river, some moderate flooding is anticipated.
The National Water Prediction Service has warned that minor to major flooding may occur in a number of additional northern California rivers, including the Eel River.
Flooding is less likely to occur in the larger rivers. The terrain is comparatively dry, and the season is still early,” Ralph stated. “We’re a little bit fortunate.”
According to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, there is a 10% to 20% probability that the storm would result in record three-day rainfall in some places north of Santa Rosa, California, and into southern Oregon.
In a briefing on Tuesday afternoon, Swain stated that it would rain more or less nonstop in some areas from now until Sunday morning at the latest. It appears that this rain storm will be more severe than a flood.
In California and other western states, atmospheric rivers are crucial for increasing water supplies, even if they can cause havoc in the fall and winter. The storm will start to restore groundwater that has been drained during a hot summer by filling reservoirs.
“Feast and famine are the stories of California water and the West in general. “There are risks and advantages to large storms,” Ralph stated.
Based on their anticipated duration and the maximum volume of water vapor they carry, Ralph and other researchers developed a 1–5 scale to rank atmospheric rivers that hit the West Coast. The storm is predicted to be an AR 4 in most places in northern California.
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