Following the Federal Reserve’s signaling of a slower pace of interest-rate decreases for 2025 than initially anticipated, which rekindled concerns about how quickly inflation would decline, major stock indices fell sharply on Wednesday.
As markets closed for the day, the S&P 500 lost 2.4% and the Nasdaq Composite lost almost 3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its largest decline since August, plunging more than 1,100 points. The Dow is now on the verge of its worst losing run in half a century after its tenth straight day of declines. Despite being striking, the trend mostly shows that investors are shifting their focus from more established businesses to tech firms, which the Dow tends to give less weight to.
Just a few months ago, the Fed projected four rate cuts for next year, but now it sees only two. The central bank now anticipates that inflation will stay above its 2% target through 2026.
Stated differently, the Fed is indicating that in order to control the rate of price increases, interest rates will need to stay high for a longer period of time.
More mixed news for the overall economy, but terrible news for equities whose growth usually benefits from lower interest rates. In addition to raising its forecasts for inflation, the Fed said the job market would likely stay relatively steady and that the unemployment rate would not likely rise much above its current 4.2% level.
In a commentary sent to clients via email on Wednesday, Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, stated, “The Fed seems more at ease with the direction of the U.S. economy compared to a few months ago and tells us the concerns about inflation are back in play for the Fed.”
Donald Trump continues to be the wild card. According to experts, the president-elect has pledged to impose a wide range of tariffs, which will probably result in price hikes. In an interview with NBC News, Trump said that he couldn’t promise that if they are put into effect, consumers won’t pay more.
Without providing a clear picture of how the levies will ultimately affect the economy, Trump has provided a variety of justifications for enforcing them, ranging from national security concerns to job creation to revenue generating.
There are still concerns about how the U.S. budget situation will develop during Trump’s second term. He has pledged to lower taxes, which would spur growth but would increase the existing debt, even as he vows to cut expenditure at previously unheard-of amounts.
It’s a mixed bag for economists and monetary officials, but it suggests that the economy will probably keep getting hotter.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated in an emailed post on Wednesday that “the economic and inflation backdrop is not one that screams a need for meaningful policy stimulus, while the incoming administration may give them a severe inflation headache next year.”
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