On Thursday, Tesla released its fourth-quarter report on vehicle deliveries and production. The important numbers are as follows:
-
Total deliveries Q4 2024:
495,570 -
Total production Q4 2024:
459,445 -
Total annual deliveries 2024:
1,789,226 -
Total annual production 2024:
1,773,443
The quarter’s results marked the first annual decline in Tesla’s delivery volume; in 2023, the company claimed 1.81 million deliveries. In the fourth quarter of 2023, 484,507 deliveries were reported.
During Thursday’s trade, Tesla’s stock dropped as much as 7%.
According to a consensus of predictions published by StreetAccount, analysts had anticipated that Tesla would announce deliveries of 504,770 units in the quarter, including 474,000 Model 3 and Model Y EVs. A company-compiled delivery consensus of 506,763 units, derived from a survey of 26 analysts, was supplied to some investors by Tesla. 501,000 deliveries were forecast by a well-known independent Tesla researcher who goes by Troy Teslike.
Although deliveries are not specifically specified in Tesla’s shareholder letters, they are the closest estimate of sales that the firm reports.
Following a massive late-year surge in which Tesla’s stock ended 2024 up 63%, the fourth-quarter report was released. The shares hit a record high in mid-December, surpassing their previous all-time high from 2021.
It was a significant improvement over the first quarter, when the stock fell 29%, the worst since 2022, as the company struggled with dwindling sales in spite of price reductions and buyer incentives. CEO Elon Musk informed investors during the company’s first-quarter results call in April that although he anticipated better sales this year compared to last, the growth rate would decelerate from 38% in 2023.
Musk’s involvement with President-elect Donald Trump’s selection campaign was the most prominent story at Tesla in the latter part of the year. Musk, the richest person in the world, spent weeks traveling around campaigning in swing areas and contributed over $277 million to support Trump and other Republican candidates.
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Musk, who also runs SpaceX and xAI and owns social network X, has been tapped to co-lead an advisory group to the Trump administration that will aim to slash federal spending, personnel and regulations.
Sam Fiorani, a vice president at industry research group Auto Forecast Solutions, told CNBC in an email that Musk s foray into politics may have pulled his focus away from his core businesses. However, the degree to which investors or EV buyers care won t be reflected in Tesla s numbers until the first quarter, he said.
Until recently, Tesla had been one of the only automakers mass producing battery-electric vehicles. The company now faces an onslaught of competition from domestic automakers, includingGeneral Motors,FordandRivianas well as BYD in China, Hyundai in Korea, and European auto giantsBMWandVolkswagen.
Patrick George, editor in chief of InsideEVs, told CNBC that he thinks Tesla still does many things better than any other EV maker, especially when it comes to its charging network. But Tesla s biggest operational challenge in the latest quarter was the nuts-and-bolts job of being a car company.
Piling up on used car lots
Tesla has invested in a humanoid robotics initiative and chip development, and plans to produce a dedicated robotaxi and start a driverless ride-hailing service before 2027. While Musk and shareholders may not want to view Tesla as just a car company, most of the profits are still derived from vehicle sales.
George said that Tesla made a mistake not bringing more affordable EVs in 2024, and added that Cybertrucks the company s newest vehicle are piling up on used car lots. The angular steel Cybertruck starts at around $80,000.
With competitors picking up market share in Europe, Tesla experienced a steep drop in sales in the region during the fourth quarter.
From January through the end of November, Tesla sold 283,000 vehicles in Europe, an approximately 14% decline from the same period a year earlier, according to registration data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, or ACEA. Registrations in Europe slid to 18,786 in November from around 31,810 a year earlier.
The company s business in China was also pressured in the fourth quarter.
Fiorani said that while the Model Y is the second bestselling model in China, its growth is failing to keep up with growth of the market. Through November, sales of the Model Y were up more than 5% but overall EV sales in the country rose 8%, he said.
Meanwhile, BYD and other brands in China, including Chery, Li Auto, Jetour, LeapMotor and Aito, grew substantially faster than Tesla. BYD is also setting up plants outside of China and exporting prodigiously.
In North America, Tesla has remained dominant. The company offered a range of incentives andprice cuts, even on its most popular Model Y SUV, during the fourth quarter to drive sales. Still, Tesla experienced a buildup of inventory.
During the fourth quarter, the company sent Cybertruck assembly line workers home for a few days, indicating that it may be looking to avoid flooding the market with too many of the vehicles.
Looking ahead to 2025, Musk said on an earnings call in October that Tesla expects to be offering lower-cost and autonomous vehicles in 2025, which should lead to 20% to 30% growth over 2024.
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