Thanksgiving dinner is more reasonably priced than it has been in years, even though you might not notice it by looking at the sticker pricing in the grocery aisles.
According to a statewide poll of supermarket prices conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents millions of U.S. farmers, the expected cost of this year’s holiday feast is $58.08 for a 10-person gathering, or $5.81 per head. This is the lowest amount since 2021 and a 5% decrease from last year. However, when inflation is taken into account, the situation gets much better.
With the exception of the 2020 outlier, the authors stated that this would be the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey if your dollar had the same total purchasing power as a customer in 1984.
It doesn’t feel that way for many families.
The difference between Americans’ negative perceptions of the economy and its fundamental strength is a defining characteristic of the post-pandemic recovery and the 2024 election. It seems sense that a lot of consumers concentrate more on price points and the monetary worth of the items they purchase than on the actual, inflation-adjusted expenses. Since wage inflation is a frequently overlooked component of the inflation issue, the latter is the real test of affordability.
Indeed, the AFBF reports that Thanksgiving food prices have increased by 19% since 2019, but federal data indicates that median household wages have increased by roughly 25% over the same time frame.
Additionally, the survey noted that the ordinary American now needs to put in less hours of work to purchase the same dinner as they did in the past. After the COVID-19 pandemic, wages grew more quickly even as inflation decreased. We were able to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner with 9% less labor hours because typical wages increased by 4% between 2023 and 2024.
Of fact, not all workers have benefited equally from pay increases, and families at all income levels are still being squeezed by long-term costs like housing and child care. Even though consumer confidence has increased recently, it is still lower than it was before the outbreak.
However, according to the AFBF analysis, several of the items in our basket are at their lowest prices ever, even when considering the current dollar price, despite the dollar’s declining purchasing power.
For example, even though some turkey stockpiles were destroyed by bird flu, turkey is 6% less expensive than it was the previous year. Prices often rise when supply is limited, but Americans are consuming roughly one pound less turkey year, which lowers demand by more than enough to make up for the supply shortfall.
There are some more costly processed meals that might end up on Thanksgiving tables. Both cubed stuffing and dinner rolls are selling for 8% more than they did a year earlier. Conversely, whole milk and sweet potatoes have had the biggest yearly price declines, dropping 14% and 26%, respectively. According to the survey, fresh cranberry prices have increased by 12%, reversing an 18% decrease the previous year, but they are still at their lowest point since 2015 and, when adjusted for inflation, are comparable to 1987 pricing.
For consumers weary of inflation, who are this year more concerned with value, these affordability increases are welcome news. For months, major consumer brands have been using price reductions and promotions to attract budget-conscious consumers. Some, like Target, are not doing as well as others, like Walmart and TJ Maxx.
Grocery stores are not an exception to the increasing competition brought on by the flood of discounts as the holidays approach. In contrast to the 2.6% average increase in consumer prices overall, food consumed at home was only 1.1% more expensive last month than it was at the same time last year.
Aldi and Target have both launched Thanksgiving sales that are less expensive than they were the year before.A Thanksgiving dinner for four at Target costs $20 and comes with stovetop stuffing mix, canned vegetables, and a small turkey.Aldi is promoting a lunch package for ten people for $47, which is less than its 2019 prices. Walmart is offering a Thanksgiving dinner for $56 that includes 29 goods and can feed eight people without inflation. Thanksgiving deals from Amazon Fresh include turkey, sides, and desserts that can feed six people for less than $5 each, plus additional savings for Prime members.
According to experts, there are many possibilities to compare prices because of the rush of promotions.
“I would simply suggest that consumers look at the components of those meals,” said Robin Wenzel, who leads Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. Don’t be scared to look at different stores.
More components may be included in some Thanksgiving meal packages, but doing so could require making more dishes from scratch. Others need less preparation but have fewer items. According to Wenzel, Thanksgiving is a very personal time for many families, and the variety of deals enables customers to customize their food shopping to fit their get-togethers.
According to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, using private label goods is one way to cut costs. This can save customers $17 on a Thanksgiving feast for ten. For further discounts, Consumer Reports experts advise signing up for cash-back and supermarket loyalty programs, which frequently provide perks like virtual coupons within the store’s applications.
In the end, geographic location will also affect Thanksgiving meal prices. According to the AFBF, households in the West, which has the most expensive holiday groceries, will typically spend almost 18% more than those in the South, which has the lowest.
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