The College Football Playoff’s 12-team bracket is nearly finalized.
Now that the regular season is done, the conference championship games this weekend are the only things left before the final bracket is revealed on Sunday. They will provide a limited number of additional data points for the 13-member committee that ranks and seeds the playoff bracket to use in determining who gets in and who doesn’t.
According to Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, who leads the playoff selection committee, there may not be much movement between the last rankings announced on Tuesday and the final bracket on Sunday because of the paucity of such data points. “We don’t have a data point to rearrange where we have those teams ranked,” Manuel told ESPN on Tuesday as he explained the committee’s reasoning. “That is set in terms of how we see them going into the final week of championship week.”
Those teams that are not participating cannot be moved in relation to other non-participating teams, but we will analyze that data point for the championship [game] teams to see if any changes are necessary, depending on how the game proceeds.
That does not preclude a slight reordering of the rankings on championship weekend. Watch out for bid thieves: if a team on the bubble upsets a team that is currently predicted to be in, that conference may receive one more bid than anticipated, eliminating another league’s berth.
Are you still worried about your team’s prospects of qualifying for the first-ever 12-team playoffs? Are you unsure about the safety of your school’s bid? On a scale of 1 (plan your trip to a non-playoff bowl) to 10 (don’t worry; you’re in), we’ve ranked the top 12 teams from the playoff committee’s most recent rankings, along with those on the bubble.
How will the bracket for the College Football Playoffs be determined? Check out our explanation.
1. Oregon (12-0)
Next game: Big Ten championship matchup against Penn State, ranked third.
10/10 on the safe scale. As safe as possible.
Oregon is 12-0 for the first time since 2010 and the only team still unbeaten, ranking first in all of the committee’s top-25 rankings this season. If it wins or loses on Saturday, it is undoubtedly headed for the field of 12. The only thing left to decide is whether the Ducks will host a first-round playoff game with a defeat or receive a first-round bye with a victory. This serves as a reminder that the top four seeds and the associated byes will go to the four highest-ranked conference winners.
2. Texas (11-1)
Next game: Georgia vs. SEC championship
Safe rating: 10 out of 10.
Bevo, you can relax. Whether they win or lose this weekend, the Longhorns, who play Georgia in the SEC title game, will advance to the playoffs. The main unknown is whether they would play their first match in the first round on December 20–21 or if they will go directly to the quarterfinals, which are scheduled for December 31–January 1.
3. Penn State (11-1)
Next game: Oregon in the Big Ten championship
9 out of 10 on the safe scale
The committee has been impressed with the Nittany Lions’ resume, and their single defeat came against Ohio State, ranked sixth. A loss to Oregon in the Big Ten championship game shouldn’t knock Penn State out of the bracket unless there is a catastrophic collapse.
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
Next game: idle
Safe rating: 10 out of 10.
Since its perplexing setback to Northern Illinois on September 7, Notre Dame has remained unwavering, winning ten straight games to put itself in a prime position to qualify for the playoffs. Notre Dame is preparing to host a playoff game on campus on December 20 or 21 since, as an independent, they are unable to get a top-four seed and a first-round bye.
5. Georgia (10-2)
Next game: Texas vs. SEC championship
Safe rating: 9 out of 10.
After defeating rival Georgia Tech in eight overtimes last week, the Bulldogs just managed to stay in the bracket. They are still in the woods. The Bulldogs’ case would be complicated if they lost in the SEC title game, but they are still likely to advance regardless of the outcome versus Texas, provided they do not lose by a margin that would undermine their confidence, given their two losses to No. 11 Alabama and No. 13 Mississippi. The Bulldogs are well aware of the implications after losing in the SEC championship last season, costing them a postseason berth.
6. Ohio State (10-2)
Next game: idle
Safe rating: 9 out of 10.
Ohio State fell four positions and may be the most wretched team ever in line to make the playoffs after suffering one of the most perplexing defeats in the history of its rivalry with Michigan, who had started as a huge underdog. The argument over whether their coach would remain in his position following the playoffs has not been resolved.
7. Tennessee (10-2)
Next game: idle
Safe rating: 10 out of 10.
The Volunteers seem almost certain to host a first-round playoff game, with teams that don’t participate in the championship game virtually guaranteed spots.
8. SMU (11-1)
Next game: Clemson versus. ACC Championship
Safe rating: 6 out of 10.
On Tuesday, “possibly” and “yes” were the two most unsettling words uttered around the Dallas metro region. For example, Manuel, the chair of the playoff committee, stated that if SMU loses to No. 17 Clemson in the ACC championship, it may, in fact, be eliminated from the playoffs.
Additionally, Manuel stated that they have the ability to transcend teams. Once more, it simply depends on how the game turns out. Winning is, of course, the most logical conclusion for SMU. According to the current rankings, a victory would place it among the top four conference champions and earn it a first-round bye.
Given that the committee claims to appreciate teams that make it to their league title game, would it really want to establish a precedent whereby a team that was previously in the field is excluded after losing in its title game?
9. Indiana (11-1)
Next game: idle
Safe scale: 4 out of 10.
The Hoosiers need to hope that the favorites prevail on championship weekend in order to stay in the bracket. Indiana would be a strong contender to lose its slot because it has no wins over teams currently ranked in the committee’s top-25, and upsets in the ACC and Mountain West in particular could result in more bids than anticipated for those leagues.
10. Boise State (11-1)
Next game: UNLV vs. Mountain West championship
Safe rating: 8 out of 10.
Ashton Jeanty, a 2,000-yard running back and Heisman Trophy candidate, leads the Broncos, who have only lost to No. 1 Oregon in a game that was played right up until the last second in September. Boise State would receive a first-round bye if they won the league championship, but their rating is so high that it is not impossible that an upset defeat to UNLV, along with other surprising outcomes this weekend, would not disqualify them from the playoffs. In October, Boise State defeated UNLV by a margin of only five points.
11. Alabama (9-3)
Next game: idle
3/10 is the safe scale.
If upsets don’t ruin this weekend, the Crimson Tide, like Indiana, are in the playoffs. Alabama, the final club in the bracket, will be nervous on Saturday, though, especially if Clemson defeats SMU. In theory, that scenario would leave the committee weighing whether to include a two-loss Mustangs team that has zero wins against any teams currently ranked in the committee s top-25, or the three-loss Tide, which has three.
12. Miami (10-2)
Next game: idle
3/10 is the safe scale.
Miami s No. 12 ranking does not mean it will be the last team in. It’s probably the first team excluded. Had the Hurricanes beaten Syracuse last weekend, their chance of making the bracket would be a near-lock. Instead, by losing to the Orange they lost out on an ACC title-game berth which went to Clemson and a final opportunity to make their case to the committee on the field.
The 12-team playoff must include the five highest-ranked conference champions, and with both teams in the Big 12 title game ranked behind Miami No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State it means the winner will jump into the playoff field, and that likely means pushing Miami out. The Hurricanes slim hopes rest on SMU losing to Clemson and forcing the committee to choose between them, SMU and Alabama.
13. Mississippi (9-3)
Next game: idle
Safe scale:1/10
Instead of the SEC placing as many as five in the bracket as once seemed possible, the conference beat up on itself so much that the credentials of some were damaged beyond repair in the eyes of the committee Mississippi included, apparently. Ole Miss beat Georgia convincingly by 18 points this season, but even if Georgia beats Texas for the SEC title, that won t burnish Ole Miss s case for inclusion because, as Manuel said, teams not playing in their conference title game are essentially frozen in the rankings. Ole Miss s ranking won t be changed and it will finish just outside the bracket.
14. South Carolina (9-3)
Next game: idle
Safe scale:1/10
Six consecutive wins, including last weekend against No. 17 Clemson, makes the Gamecocks the hottest team in the SEC. Coach Shane Beamer s argument for his team was that it was the best in the conference right now. But due to earlier losses to Alabama and Mississippi, who are ranked ahead of the Gamecocks and similarly idle this weekend, there isn t a path to leapfrog them into the playoff.
If I hear the word data point one more time in my life, I might throw up, Beamer told reportersWednesday.
15. Arizona State (10-2)
Next game:Big 12 championship vs. Iowa State
Safe scale:5/10
Just 3-9 and under a self-imposed bowl ban one year ago, the Sun Devils are college football s most unlikely playoff darling in coach Kenny Dillingham s second season. With no case for Arizona State to earn an at-large bid, their playoff math is simple: Win and you re in. Or else.
16. Iowa State (10-2)
Next game:Big 12 championship vs. Arizona State
Safe scale: 5/10
Like the Sun Devils, the Cyclones also won t be in consideration to earn an at-large bid should they lose in the Big 12 title game. A victory leads to the playoff. A loss, to a lesser-tier bowl.
17. Clemson (9-3)
Next game: ACC championship vs. SMU
Safe scale:5/10
They rank halfway on the scale only because a win means the Tigers are in, as they would be one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. This is a prime bid-thief possibility. Since a loss to Louisville on Nov. 2 that doomed their at-large bid potential, the Tigers haven t allowed more than 20 points in a game.
20. UNLV (10-2)
Next game:Mountain West championship vs. Boise State
Safe scale:5/10
Another possible bid thief. Judging by the current rankings, Boise State would earn a first-round playoff bye but that would change if UNLV wins the Mountain West title game, and that could very well happen based on how close these teams played one another in October. Rebels fans will be sweating it out this weekend. They re in with a win, but out without.
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