Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, an evening email that provides you with the most recent coverage and commentary from the campaign trail, Capitol Hill, and the White House by the NBC News Politics team.
The national political correspondent discusses why Republicans might not be able to rely on Donald Trump’s coalition in the future in today’s program. Additionally, the president-elect’s choice to head the Defense Department is met with skepticism from Republican senators.
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The GOP s post-election challenge: Turning Trump voters into full-fledged Republicans
By Steve Kornacki
The Trump coalition and the GOP coalition are not exactly the same, which presents a difficulty for Republicans moving forward despite their victory.
President-elect Donald Trump swept the battleground states and won a national popular vote victory by gaining significant new support from nonwhite, young, and first-time voters and further increasing support among white blue-collar voters.
However, Trump garnered considerably more votes than any of the GOP candidates in the five battlegrounds that also included Senate elections, costing the party four of them (and almost all five). Although it’s common for down-ballot contests to receive fewer votes overall, Republicans’ drop-off was noticeably worse than that of the Democratic Senate candidates.
Some of this can undoubtedly be explained by the unique characteristics of each candidate and campaign. For example, in Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego earned more votes than Vice President Kamala Harris at the head of their party’s ticket, a clear benefit of Republican Kari Lake’s widespread unpopularity.
However, when viewed as a whole, the pattern is remarkable, particularly considering recent events. Only one state had a divided White House/Senate result in the two prior presidential elections combined. In 2020, people in Maine supported Democrat Joe Biden for president while re-electing Republican Senator Susan Collins.
Although there are probably a number of things at play here, two particularly stand out as possible long-term problems for the GOP.
In the first, those who were inspired to vote for Trump chose to ignore every other contest on the ballot. This is supported by some evidence. According to research by my colleague Scott Bland, 6.6% of Trump supporters in Nevada’s second-largest county, Washoe, either chose a third-party candidate or left the Senate race blank (or selected the state’s unusual none of these candidates option). In the meanwhile, 4.9% of Harris voters followed suit.
Although this only partially explains Nevada’s GOP decline, the outcome is in line with a feature of this year’s NBC News polling. Trump performed best among infrequent voters, who were disproportionately young, nonwhite, and male, and who showed a 15-point lead over those who had not cast a ballot in 2020. These voters also showed less interest in the race. In the future, when Trump won’t be on the ballot, it’s possible that a sizable portion of these individuals will only vote for Trump, which begs the question of whether the GOP can turn them into true Republicans.
Democratic defectors—traditionally Democratic supporters who have effectively made an exception for Trump—represent the other aspect that the GOP will need to address.
In Wisconsin, where Trump won by around 30,000 votes while Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected by nearly the same number, this seems to have been the case. Rural, blue-collar counties, many of which had been Democratic territory prior to Trump’s rise, had the biggest decline in support for his party’s Senate nominee, Eric Hovde. Trump’s statewide victory was largely due to his additional expansion of support in this area, but those gains did not translate to other states.
Without Trump, Republicans will have to figure out how to make it happen in the future.
Trump s pick for defense secretary is in peril in the Senate
By Courtney Kube, Frank Thorp V, Ryan Nobles and Garrett Haake
Pete Hegseth, president-elect Donald Trump’s choice to head the Defense Department, is in jeopardy as Senate Republicans become more alarmed over allegations of his drinking and mistreatment of women.
Three Republican sources with direct knowledge of Hegseth’s nomination process tell NBC News that as many as six Senate Republicans, if not more, are currently uncomfortable with the former Fox News anchor’s ambition to run the Pentagon as fresh information about his background keeps coming to light. Hegseth can only afford to lose three GOP votes, assuming all Democrats vote against him, given Republicans’ narrow Senate majority in the upcoming Congress.
Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, who is on the Armed Services Committee, stated that she would question Hegseth about news reports of his alleged financial mismanagement, mistreatment of women, and alcohol consumption, but she would not promise to supporting his candidacy.
Regarding Hegseth’s nomination process, Ernst stated, “We’re just going to have a really frank and thorough conversation.”
Following Trump’s announcement that he would nominate the former Fox host for defense secretary, a police report made public revealed that Hegseth, a veteran of the Army National Guard, had been accused of sexually assaulting a woman in California in 2017. Hegseth paid an undisclosed sum as part of a settlement with the lady, but he was not charged and denied the woman’s claims, claiming the contact was consensual.
In a separate story, NBC News said Tuesday that ten current and former Fox workers expressed worry about Hegseth’s drinking. Before Hegseth appeared on television more than a dozen times, two of them said that he had an alcoholic odor. When questioned about such claims Tuesday night at the Capitol, Hegseth remained silent.
Last month’s initial accusations against Hegseth didn’t seem to jeopardize his intended nomination. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., who chairs the Armed Services Committee, stated he expected Hegesth to be approved following his initial round of discussions on Capitol Hill last month. However, Wicker sounded more circumspect on Tuesday following a string of other accusations regarding Hegseth’s past, but before NBC News covered the claims regarding drinking at Fox News.
Wicker stated, “I believe some members have questions, and we’re going to be looking for an answer.”
Trump’s choice to be the next DEA administrator, Sheriff Chad Chronister of Hillsborough County, Florida, withdrew from consideration on Tuesday.Continue reading
Today s top stories
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Pardon fallout:
President Joe Biden s decision to pardon his soncould give Trump political cover
moving forward, including if he pardons Jan. 6 rioters. On Tuesday, Trump s lawyers urged the judge who presided over his conviction for falsifying business records to dismiss the indictment against the president-elect, citing the language Biden used in his son s pardon.
Read more
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Not over yet:
Rep. Sean Casten, D-Ill., is forcing a floor vote this week to require the House Ethics Committee to release a report on its yearslong investigation into former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla.Read more
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Shutdown watch:
Lawmakers appear to be moving toward a stopgap bill to push a key government funding deadline to early 2025, which could complicate Trump s plans for his first weeks in office.Read more
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Bonjour:
Trump is heading overseas for the first time since the election, traveling to Paris this weekend for the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral.Read more
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Promoted:
The Senate voted to allow the promotion of a general who oversaw troops during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, after Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., had initially blocked the promotion.Read more
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Poll position:
The 2024 election polls again understated support for Trump, though not to the same extent as 2020, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis.Read more
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Full Court press:
The New York Times explores how Supreme Court justices developed their own unenforceable code of ethics.Read more
For now, that’s all from the Politics Desk. For comments, likes, or dislikes, send an email to [email protected].
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