The House GOP's math problem: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, an evening email that provides you with the most recent coverage and commentary from the campaign trail, Capitol Hill, and the White House by the NBC News Politics team.

Following the last race call of the 2024 elections, Bridget Bowman, a national political reporter, and Scott Wong, a senior congressional reporter, analyze the House GOP’s mathematical dilemma in today’s edition. We also discuss the most recent developments regarding Pete Hegseth’s troubled attempt to become the head of the Defense Department.

Democrats flip final House seat of the 2024 elections, narrowing Republicans majority

By Bridget Bowman and Scott Wong

Officially, the last contest Washington was anticipating from the election last month has been announced:After weeks of ballot counting, NBC News predicted Wednesday morning that Democrat Adam Gray had defeated Republican Representative John Duarte in California’s 13th District.

As a consequence, Republicans will hold 220 seats next year, while Democrats will hold 215. Since Republicans can only lose two votes on legislation if Democrats unite in opposition, they will have far less leeway as they attempt to implement President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.

The fact that Trump has appointed two current GOP lawmakers to his Cabinet—Mike Waltz of Florida as national security advisor and Elise Stefanik of New York as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations—further complicates the calculations for House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

Additionally, Republicans will lose a lawmaker in the upcoming Congress. After being chosen by Trump to be the next attorney general, Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned from the House last month. However, Gaetz removed his name from consideration due to sexual misconduct claims. Despite winning reelection in November, he has stated that he has no intention of joining the upcoming Congress.

Johnson might be operating with a one-seat majority (217 to 215) if Stefanik and Waltz resign at the same time.

Gaetz and Waltz will be replaced by special general elections in Florida on April 1. According to state law, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul has 10 days from the time Stefanik resigns from Congress to call a special election in New York, which must take place 70 to 80 days following the proclamation.

Pete Hegseth, Trump s embattled defense pick, vows to fight on

By Scott Wong, Frank Thorp V and Rebecca Shabad

The struggling defense secretary nominee of President-elect Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth, dismissed rumors on Wednesday that he would resign and claimed to have spoken with Trump, who encouraged him to keep fighting.

This morning, I had a conversation with the president-elect. “Keep going, keep fighting,” he added. You have my full support. In the Capitol, Hegseth told CBS News. Why would I give in? I’ve been a fighter all my life. For the fighters, I am here. For me, this is intense and intimate.

However, a string of news exposes that questioned his treatment of women and his past with drinking on Tuesday and Wednesday seemed to seriously jeopardize his nomination.

Penelope Hegseth, Hegseth’s mother, defended her son on Fox and Friends on Wednesday. She also addressed an email she wrote in 2018 during his divorce accusing him of mistreating women for years. Details of the email were released by the New York Times last week.

With a flurry of meetings with senators on both sides of the Capitol and a publicity campaign to save his candidacy, including an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal, Hegseth showed no indications of quitting.Title: I’ve Experienced Fire Previously. I refuse to give up.

Hegseth responded to the accusations by directing reporters to an interview he recorded earlier in the day on Megyn Kelly’s SiriusXM show, where he denied raping a woman in Monterey, California, in 2017 and claimed he did not have a drinking problem.

Not at all. When questioned if he had raped the woman, he said, “Absolutely not.” I’ve spoken the truth about the interaction, beginning with the police. Even though I was intoxicated, I was still alert enough to recall every single detail.

He went on, “I’m not here to say that my conduct was good.” It’s not acceptable to be in a hotel room with someone who isn’t your significant other. I acknowledge that.

Hegseth also declared that if he is confirmed as defense secretary, he will not drink at all. He stated that he wants senators, Trump, and American troops to know that he is available at all times and will be completely focused.

Trump is thinking of replacing Hegseth in light of the opposition to his nomination, according to an NBC News story Wednesday morning. According to those involved with the decision-making process, Trump may also appoint Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., his current national security adviser; Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; and Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn.

The Trumpification of Joe Biden

By Chuck Todd

There has been a lot of criticism of President Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter, and the majority of it—including the severe criticism with partisan overtones—has valid points. Beyond this, there is no other justification for the pardon: He is a father, and what parent wouldn’t utilize whatever authority they had to assist their children in need?

I won’t act as though I wouldn’t have chosen to do whatever it takes to safeguard my child in a similar situation, even if it meant destroying my own legacy.

That’s what complicates criticism of Biden’s choice. This has a human component that is terrible in a lot of ways. It really does suit the criteria of Shakespearean, which is a term that is overused in today’s society yet is ideal for this occasion.

The question now is, to what extent has Biden caused harm by defending his son?

Permission slips are what the president does. A precedent is established when a president does an action that has never been done before. And I can assure you that if one president attempts something and succeeds, another will do something similar.

Welcome to a new standard, then. The president has now reversed the conviction of his son by a jury of other Americans, not a kangaroo court. Additionally, he exonerated him of any allegations against him, including those that may be brought against him in the future for any actions he may have taken throughout the ten-year period from 2014—the year Hunter attempted to conduct business in Ukraine—until the present.

Who knows if Donald Trump will issue pardons before he leaves office that are nearly the same as the one for Hunter Biden, but he fixes the dates to Jan. 20, 2029, his last day in office, and June 15, 2015, the day he rode the escalator. In any case, the odds have undoubtedly increased.

More significantly, Biden has now used Trump’s language to explain what he perceives to be Hunter’s encounter with the legal system. If both parties agree that whoever is elected will politically persecute their rivals, what sort of precedent will we have set? It is a component of Biden’s justification for the pardon. And Trump will undoubtedly use it as justification for pardons in the future.

What is the public’s current perception of the legal system? Both the nation’s top Republican (Trump) and top Democrat (Biden) have asserted that politics is to blame for the system’s unfairness.

Today s top stories

SCOTUS on transgender rights:

The Supreme Court s conservative majority Wednesday leaned toward upholding a Tennessee law that restricts gender transition treatments, appearing not to believe that the law constitutes a form of sex discrimination that would mean courts have to give it close scrutiny.

Read more
The states on transgender rights:

A measure to bar Montana state Rep. Zooey Zephyr, the state s first transgender legislator, from using women s restrooms at the state Capitol failed to advance Tuesday, with several Republicans voting against it.

Read more
Trump transition watch, part 1:

Trump announced that Peter Navarro would serve be senior counselor for trade and manufacturing. Navarro, a top White House aide during Trump s first term, went to prison this year for defying a congressional subpoena from a House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Read more
Trump transition watch, part 2:

Trump said he plans to nominate billionaire entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman has flown to space twice on commercial SpaceX missions but has not worked in the federal government.

Read more
Trump transition watch, part 3:

Trump said he will select David Warrington, his longtime personal lawyer and general counsel to his campaign, to be White House counsel. Trump announced last month that William McGinley would take the job, but he said Wednesday he would instead be counsel to the “Department of Government Efficiency.”

Read more
Family ties:

As Trump assembles a senior staff and Cabinet for his second administration, there are notable absences: his children.

Read more
Digging into Kash Patel:

Trump s pick for FBI director, Kash Patel,

promoted a supplement line

this year that purports without evidence to help people detox from Covid vaccines. He also has vowed

to “come after” the media

, but he later emphasized that his comments apply only if people “broke the law.”
Deportation preparation:

Trump transition officials are exploring building immigration detention facilities on a plot of land the state of Texas recently purchased along the Rio Grande.

Read more
Georgia on my mind

: Trump s attorneys asked a Georgia appeals court to dismiss the Fulton County racketeering case against him because a “sitting president is completely immune from indictment or any criminal process, state or federal.”

Read more
Moving on:

Longtime Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., said he was dropping his bid to remain the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee and endorsed Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., who announced just two days ago that he would challenge Nadler for the coveted job.

Read more
On to 2026, part 1:

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a longtime Democrat, is launching an independent campaign for governor of Michigan, shaking up the early stages of the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2026.

Read more
On to 2026, part 2:

Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming announced he would challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., who voted to convict Trump after his 2021 impeachment trial.

Read more
Mark your calendar:

NBC News Kristen Welker will conduct an exclusive interview with Trump to air Sunday on Meet the Press.

Read more

For now, that’s all from the Politics Desk. For comments, likes, or dislikes, send an email to [email protected].

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The House GOP’s math problem: From the Politics Desk