Three quarterbacks dominated the AFC from 2004 to 2019, at least in the playoffs.
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger combined for 15 Super Bowl appearances for the conference during that 16-year span. (In 2013, Joe Flacco was the only party crasher.)
However, that power has transferred since 2020 to one individual: Patrick Mahomes, who is just one victory away on Sunday from making his fifth Super Bowl appearance in six years. Additionally, a murderer’s row of quarterbacks who may have already won or at least participated in championships in a different era have been left behind by Mahomes in his never-ending parade to Super Bowl after Super Bowl.
Since Mahomes joined the Kansas City Chiefs as a full-time starter in 2018, a number of current greats have been selected at quarterback. Both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who was probably headed for a third MVP award, were selected by the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens in that year alone. In the playoffs, neither has been able to defeat Mahomes.
The 2020 draft expanded Mahomes’ list of opponents to include players like Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts.
Since his draft selection, Herbert’s Los Angeles Chargers have a 2-8 record against the Chiefs. In the playoffs, Burrow, Tagovailoa, and Hurts had a combined record of 1-3 against him. To his credit, Burrow is the first quarterback this decade to upset Mahomes on the road during the postseason. (Mahomes only lost to Tom Brady in 2019 prior to the Super Bowl.)
Former No. 1 picks Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield, as well as the newest player on the list as of this season, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, are other signal-callers who have enjoyed losing to Mahomes in the postseason.
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Mahomes is the greatest obstacle for an AFC club attempting to win a Super Bowl, much like, say, LeBron James during his run of NBA Finals appearances from 2011 to 2018. He is the last boss. There is little doubt that a quarterback must defeat Mahomes in Kansas City if he hopes to win a championship.
Allen, whose Bills have suffered three postseason losses to the Chiefs since 2020, is the player who is most acutely aware of it. The Bills fell 38-24 in that inaugural year, the final time Buffalo and Kansas City faced off in the conference championship game.
The Chiefs drove 44 yards in the last 13 seconds of regulation for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime, then Buffalo lost 42-36 the following season in one of the most iconic games in NFL playoff history. Kicker Tyler Bass missed a game-tying attempt with less than two minutes remaining in Buffalo’s 27-24 home loss last year.
Allen will lead the Bills into Kansas City on Sunday, representing more than just a team that is all too familiar with the sensation of falling as short as possible. Additionally, he will be the best shot for the current QB generation to unseat Mahomes.
Brady, who will call this year’s big game for Fox, and Matthew Stafford are the only other quarterbacks to win Super Bowls since Mahomes started. Both Stafford and Brady were selected prior to 2010.
With either the Eagles’ Hurts or the Washington Commanders’ rookie Jayden Daniels emerging from the NFC, Allen’s victory on Sunday would guarantee the first Super Bowl victory for a quarterback who was not Mahomes.
But if Mahomes prevails, he’ll make sure that the ceiling he set over most of his opponents stays in place, at least for another two weeks.