According to a recent NBC News Decision Desk study of precinct-level data, low attendance in overwhelmingly Democratic cities was a major factor in Vice President Kamala Harris’ defeats and President-elect Donald Trump’s victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Harris’s most obvious route to victory heading into Election Day was to win all three of the traditional blue wall states. She ultimately lost in all three, and the almost finished vote count in those states demonstrates how the number of votes decreased in some of the most Democratic-friendly regions of those states as compared to 2020.
Harris’s percentage of the vote and the percentage change in the total number of votes cast in the presidential campaign relative to the total number of votes cast in 2020 are depicted in the charts below. A county is represented by each dot; counties with more voters in 2024 than in 2020 are represented by dots above the 0% line, while counties with fewer voters in 2024 than in 2020 are represented by the comparatively small number of dots below that line.
The diagonal black lines indicate that in all three states, the turnout was lower in the highly Republican counties on the left side of each panel than in the heavily Democratic counties on the right, compared to 2020. The biggest counties in each state—Michigan’s Wayne County, which is home to Detroit; Pennsylvania’s Philadelphia County; and Wisconsin’s Milwaukee County—had the worst or second-worst shift in votes cast.
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