Republicans are hopeful that they may defy past midterm trends and increase their majority in two years because the demographic and geographic characteristics of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 indicate that the next House election will primarily take place in districts that Trump won.
Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told NBC News that only three Republicans now hold the districts that Vice President Kamala Harris won, while over a dozen Democrats now hold the areas that Trump swept.
Hudson stated, “That indicates to me that we’re going on offense.”
The House landscape has changed significantly since Trump’s first victory in 2016, when around a dozen Democrats won seats that Trump carried and about two dozen Republicans ended up in districts that Hillary Clinton won. In 2018, Democrats padded their margin in the Trump districts after winning well in the Clinton districts.However, any route to a significant Democratic House majority must pass through Trump’s 2024 territory, despite the fact that Republicans only secured a three-seat majority this year (220–215) in a full house.
However, citing their down-ballot candidates who outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris in November and their tight House run despite losing the national popular vote, Democrats do not think these new Trump districts are securely in the GOP’s column.
I believe that voters understood our message. We must take further action. In a telephone interview, Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chairperson of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, stated, “I obviously want to make sure that we have the gavels.” However, I believe that because we were able to connect with people, we accomplished a lot of things correctly in a challenging situation across the nation.
Despite Trump’s victories in Democratic strongholds and his sweep of competitive battleground states, Republicans managed to hold the House this year but lost one seat overall. In 2026, Democrats will have midterm trends on their favor and only need to win three seats to win the House. According to data from the American Presidency Project, the president’s party lost an average of 20 House seats in the last six midterm elections for a second-term president.
How both parties will handle a future in which Trump will never again be at the top of the ballot will also be tested in the upcoming midterm elections.
Republicans, who are fighting for a slim majority, want to sustain the trends that Trump helped ignite and make the Trump coalition a strong bloc for other GOP candidates. Additionally, Democrats, encouraged by their downballot success, are trying to regain the support of people of color and the working class who have previously supported their party but have now backed the president-elect.
A shifting battlefield
According to campaign strategists and a National Republican Redistricting Trust (NRRT) research, just three House Republicans are in seats that Harris won this year: Mike Lawler of New York, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, and Don Bacon of Nebraska.
Lawler, who is also considering a 2026 bid for governor of New York, told NBC News, “I think we’ve all shown an ability to win in Democratic districts in tough environments.”
Three Democrats who had been serving in Trump districts—Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and Jared Golden of Maine—were re-elected. Even though their districts switched from supporting President Joe Biden in 2020 to supporting Trump this year, ten or eleven additional Democrats nevertheless prevailed in their House contests.
Adam Kincaid, president and executive director of the NRRT, stated, “I don’t know when we’ve had more obvious crossover targets coming out of a successful cycle like this.” He added that, depending on split precinct results in Ohio’s 13th District, there could be 11 Democrats in districts that switched from Biden to Trump.
According to Kincaid, Democrats will need to invade Trump territory in order to win the House.
Rep.-elect Adam Gray of California, Rep. Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico, and Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas are among the Democrats in new Trump districts who represent seats with significant Latino populations, highlighting Trump’s victories among this demographic. Rep.-elect Nellie Pou, who won a closer-than-expected battle in New Jersey’s 9th District—which is 44% Hispanic based on census data—is another election-night surprise.
Trump’s gains among working-class voters are also reflected in the districts. Less than 36% of adults in all but one of those districts have a bachelor’s degree or above, which is lower than the national average. The median household income in most Trump/House Democratic districts is less than $65,000, which is also lower than the $78,000 national median.
Trump has changed the Republican coalition to include more people of color and members of the working class.
With reference to Cuellar’s seat and Democratic Representative Susie Lee’s Nevada district, which also went to Trump, Hudson stated, “That shifting coalition for us reshapes the battlefield and creates opportunities in places like Texas-28 or Nevada-3.”
However, Democrats claim that the performance of its House candidates provides the party with a blueprint for the midterm elections. According to a DCCC study shared with NBC News, Democratic candidates in battleground districts beat Harris by an average of 2.4 points in counties with fewer than 30% of voters having a college degree and by an average of 0.2 points in counties with a majority of Latino voters.
Democrats’ unique brands were praised by DelBene and other party strategists as the secret to surviving some larger political forces.
According to DelBene, both our incumbents and the challengers vying for seats have always been sincere, independent-minded people who are committed to their districts.
Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., whose seat switched from Biden to Trump, stated, “I feel like I know my district and my constituents know me.” Furthermore, I am aware that Donald Trump won’t be at the top of the ticket in 2026 and that midterm elections frequently differ greatly. And I will be ready for everything.
In addition to harnessing demographic shifts and running on a strong message, Mike Smith, president of House Majority PAC, the primary Democratic super PAC active in House contests, stated that candidate quality is crucial to success.
Smith stated that when we have it, it doesn’t really matter if we’re working class, suburban, or rural. We have electable candidates who connect with voters. And we demonstrated that in 22 and 24, and I believe that will be shown much more clearly in 26.
In an effort to assist with research and outreach to possible candidates in important House races, the super PAC said Wednesday that it is establishing a new recruitment fund. Along with 16 more GOP-held seats that it claimed could be competitive with the appropriate Democratic candidate on the ballot, it also unveiled a list of 29 midterm targets.
Some Trump seats that weren’t on the battlefield this year, such as Michigan’s 4th District, which is represented by Republican Representative Bill Huizenga, are among the targets. Smith pointed out that despite being overwhelmingly pro-Trump, Ottawa County has been shifting toward Democrats, and that Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer won the seat in 2022.
Despite not having seen the target list, Hudson claimed that because of the narrow House geography, Democrats typically target certain regions. In the past two election cycles, only a small percentage of the 435 seats have changed hands.
According to Hudson, we have more opportunities than they have to secure seats. so that they can spin it in whatever way they like.
Party challenges
Even though there were some positive developments down the ballot, some Democrats admitted that their party still needs to do more to win back important voter segments, especially Latinos and working-class voters, and argued that the party is not solely focused on fighting Trump.
In actuality, voters have viewed us as the opposition party for the last eight years. One Democratic strategist who has worked in House contests and asked to remain anonymous in order to discuss party strategy openly stated, “And we have to stand for something.”
Democrats should keep concentrating on issues that impact working families, such as the child tax credit, according to DelBene.
According to DelBene, our main goal is to ensure that we are accomplishing our goals and improving our communities.
Republicans will work to turn Trump supporters into dependable GOP supporters, though some Republicans admitted that those people are still not in their ranks.
According to Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, voting for Trump does not automatically make one a Republican.
In order to win over those people, Hudson advised Republicans to concentrate on addressing important issues and keep researching the most effective ways to connect with voters who don’t often cast ballots.
The first question is: Why did they first vote for Trump? And I believe it’s because they were worried about the expenses for their family and wanted change. According to Hudson, they are worried about both the open border and crime in their community. Therefore, I believe that the first stage is to fulfill our commitments.
Trump will be a crucial Republican spokesperson in the 2018 elections, according to Hudson. Given that Trump and the NRCC frequently supported the same candidates in important elections, Hudson was likewise unconcerned about the possibility of running against Trump or his supporters in the next primary.
Hudson stated that he recognizes the significance of holding the House.
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