Washington In the first year of Donald Trump’s second term, the new Congress got underway Friday, bringing in a small Republican majority in the House to take on massive challenges ranging from preserving the government to preventing a catastrophic debt default to furthering the president-elect’s immigration and tax goals.
In the 2024 elections, Republicans secured a majority of 220–215 seats; however, they began with 219 members because former Representative Matt Gaetz, R–Fla., resigned and chose not to run for office again.
After some drama, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., lost the one defection he could afford, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., and was re-elected to his position by a single vote on Friday. He kept the first ballot open and then flipped two more early holdouts.However, wielding the gavel was the easy part. The Louisiana Republican’s political career will be put to the ultimate test in what follows.
With Trump declaring he will remove two House Republicans to serve in his cabinet, Johnson’s majority is expected to drastically decline in the upcoming weeks.Florida native Michael Waltz will serve as national security advisor, and New Yorker Elise Stefanik will serve as ambassador to the United Nations. It will probably take months to replace them.
A single Republican defection might kill a bill unless Democrats support it, as both would depart before Gaetz is replaced, reducing the majority to an even more precarious 217–215.
In other words, during the critical first few months of Trump’s presidency, House Republicans will have a zero-vote margin for defection. The House majority may struggle to approve party-line legislation even after the party regains its full strength if a few members become ill, have scheduling issues, or are delayed by bad weather and cannot arrive in Washington in time for important votes. Senators will take office on Friday and start organizing hearings for Trump Cabinet nominations, giving Republicans a slightly greater majority in the Senate, 53-47.
They also have a long list of things to do. This is the agenda for 2025.
Funding the government by March 14
Less than two months after Trump takes office, the deadline was pushed back to March 14 due to a protracted battle last month for a short-term resolution to avoid a government shutdown. This implies that Republicans still have to reach an agreement with Democrats about government funding, which frequently leads to conflicts between conservative hardliners, military hawks, and GOP moderates.
House Republicans typically lose some votes on the right, so if history is any indication, they are unlikely to find enough votes to pass a bill without Democrats. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., must approve any agreement to avoid a shutdown because, even if they are able to unite their House conference, they will need 60 Senate votes to pass legislation.
Johnson will eventually have to persuade lawmakers who frequently object to similar proposals to accept another compromise package.
Pass Trump’s agenda on immigration, energy and taxes
Republicans want legislation to advance key elements of Trump’s agenda as soon as possible. They have stated that they will approve a bill with solely Republican votes by circumventing the Senate’s 60-vote requirement through the budget reconciliation procedure.
There are limitations to such method. To set fiscal limits and provide committees with guidance, a budget resolution must first be passed. Only then can the final measure alter expenditure and taxation, which will necessitate concessions that conservatives would rather not make. Democrats can contest and remove any clauses that don’t pertain to taxes or spending and are therefore ineligible for the 50-vote route.
There are already disagreements that have surfaced. Before introducing another party-line measure later this year to extend Trump’s tax cuts before they expire on the last day of 2025, incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is pushing for splitting it into two bills in the hopes of securing a swift victory on providing Trump with additional funding for border security. However, Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., the chair of the Ways and Means Committee, which writes taxes, is cautioning Republicans that postponing the tax plan might put it in danger and result in a multitrillion-dollar tax increase.
Regardless of the approach they take, Republicans will also need to reach a consensus on contentious issues like how much to increase the debt and whether aspects of the legacy of former President Joe Biden should be repealed to finance their new plans. The latter is more tricky than it seems because conservative districts represented by Republicans benefit from a large amount of the Biden clean energy programs that GOP leaders are trying to dismantle.
Extend the debt ceiling
The United States is expected to reach the debt ceiling this month and will start using exceptional measures to pay the bills and avoid a default that could have disastrous effects on the American and global economies, as per a bipartisan law approved last year. That s likely to buy Congress a few months, but members will invariably have to extend the debt ceiling sometime this year.
Last month, Trump s eleventh-hour demand that Congress take the debt ceiling off his plate was widely rebuffed by both parties. Despite Trump s threat to court primary challenges against Republicans who voted for a funding bill without resolving the debt limit, 170 GOP members supported such a measure.
Many Republicans routinely vote against lifting or extending the debt ceiling. But Democrats, who usually fill the void, may be reluctant to help Republicans lift the debt ceiling just as the GOP is passing a party-line tax bill the opposition says would primarily benefit the wealthy.
So, will Republicans cut a deal with Democrats? Will they find a way to raise the borrowing limit with only GOP votes, perhaps in a reconciliation bill?
Behind closed doors last month, Republicans made a pact to pursue $2.5 trillion in spending cuts in 2025 alongside a debt limit hike, a way to appease conservative hard-liners. But some say that deal isn t worth the paper it s printed on.
They call that a gentleman s agreement, Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., who has opposed past bills to lift the debt limit, told NBC News. And there are no gentlemen up here, dude.
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